This
post is part of our forum on Jeffrey Goldberg's September cover story
detailing the prospects and implications of an Israeli strike against Iran.
Follow the debate here.
Patrick Clawson makes a number of interesting
points about the way America and Israel view Iran's nuclear effort. But
most of these points proceed from a single assumption -- that Iran's
"nuclear clock has slowed." That phrase is now one of the Obama
administration's favorites when arguing that Iran's progress toward
nuclear-weapon capability has diminished, and that more time is available to
convince Iran to change its ways.
Sad to say, the assumption is false. The clock is still
ticking, vigorously. By the beginning of this year, Iran had produced enough
low-enriched uranium to fuel two nuclear weapons if the uranium were further
enriched to weapon-grade. By now, Iran has added almost enough of this
low-enriched uranium to fuel a third weapon, and by the middle of next year
(at the current production rate), it will probably produce enough to fuel a
fourth. To make matters worse, in February, the Iran started to further
enrich this uranium to a higher level, a level at which the Islamic Republic
will have accomplished 90 percent of the work needed to raise its enrichment
to weapon-grade. All this is happening at a time when Iran is successfully
fielding ballistic missiles that can carry a nuclear payload far enough to
reach Israel.
To allay fears about Iran's progress, the administration is claiming
that it could take Tehran as much as a year to raise its low-enriched
uranium to weapon-grade. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
while acknowledging that it could, indeed, take this long, says also that it
could take as little as three months. Theoretical calculations based on
Iran's known capacity support the IAEA's lower figure. There is also the
risk that Iran has one or more secret centrifuge sites (it was caught
building one recently). If even one such site exists, the administration's
estimate -- based on the sites that we know exist -- becomes meaningless.
But why quibble about how long the final phase of bomb making
might take? Instead, we should keep our eyes on the big fact here, which is
that Iran is fast approaching the status of a "virtual" nuclear
weapon state -- one with the ability to kick out UN inspectors and build a
handful of nuclear warheads. This is not an argument for bombing Iran, by
Israel or anyone else. But it is a warning -- a warning that we must
confront the growth of Iran's nuclear capability, and not be lulled into
imagining that it's not real.
The
debate continues here.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/08/irans-nuclear-clock-is-not-slowing/61838/