OBAMA'S CHARADE ON IRAN SANCTIONS
June 9, 2010
http://www.raceforiran.com/obama%E2%80%99s-charade-on-iran-sanctions
Today, the United
Nations Security Council will adopt a new resolution (see, here) imposing
sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran over its nuclear activities.
Predictably, the Obama Administration is working to spin its “victory” in
New York as both a great diplomatic achievement and a serious intensification of
international pressure on Iran over the nuclear issue. It is neither.
The resolution will be
adopted by a Security Council that is more deeply divided overthis resolution
than over the three sanctions resolutions against Iran adopted by the Council
while George W. Bush was in the White House. It is particularly
significant that Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon are refusing to support the
resolution. In international political terms, this will very likely turn out to
be a pyrrhic victory for the Obama Administration–the Administration will win
a narrow, tactical battle today, but at great cost to America’s long term
strategic position, in the Middle East and globally.
Moreover, by any
substantive criterion, the sanctions actually authorized in the resolution to be
adopted today are remarkably weak—for the Obama Administration, embarrassingly
so (although you won’t hear them admit it). In the main body of the
resolution, there are, literally, no sanctions limiting the capacity of
the Islamic Republic to produce and export hydrocarbons. The
Obama Administration wanted energy sanctions, but China made clear that it would
not support a resolution containing them. So they were not included in the
final text. Likewise, there are no sanctions barring the extension
of financial services, insurance, reinsurance, etc. to Iranian individuals and
entities.
In fact, the only
mandatory measures in the resolution—that is, measures which all member states
will be obligated to apply—are the following:
–States will be
required to block Iranian investments outside the Islamic Republic in uranium
mining or the production of nuclear materials and technology.
–States will be
barred from supplying Iran with specified categories of heavy weaponry that
could potentially be used in offensive military operations. (States,
however, will be free to continue supplying Iran with weapons and military
equipment outside the specified categories—including, for Russia, the S300
anti-aircraft missile.)
–States will be
required to prevent individuals designated in an annex to the resolution (more
on this below) to travel outside of Iran—except where such travel is justified
on the grounds of humanitarian need or religious obligation. This
provision is similar to travel restrictions imposed on individuals designated in
annexes to the previous sanctions resolutions.
–States will be
required to freeze assets of individuals and entities designated in annexes to
the resolution (again, more on this below). This provision is also similar
to asset freezes imposed on individuals and entities designated in annexes to
the previous sanctions resolutions.
Beyond these mandatory
sanctions, there are other, essentially “optional” measures which states may
apply if they are so inclined:
–States may impose
limits on the extension of financial services to Iranian individuals and
entities by financial institutions under their jurisdiction, if they believe
that those Iranian individuals and entities are involved in
“proliferation-sensitive nuclear activities” or “the development of
nuclear weapon delivery systems”. States may also, if they choose to do
so, freeze whatever assets these individuals and entities have in their
jurisdictions.
–States may inspect
ships on the high seas suspected of carrying restricted items to Iran—but only
with the consent of the state under which any given suspect ship is registered
(the so-called “flag state”). Likewise, states may inspect any and all
cargo going to and coming from Iran in their jurisdictions, if states determine
that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe the cargo contains prohibited
items.
The Obama
Administration has indicated that it anticipates these provisions will provide a
legal basis for other states—like members of the European Union and Japan—to
enact tougher national sanctions of their own. But the United States is
not going to get anything approaching universal compliance with these
“optional” sanctions. The net effect will be to accelerate the
reallocation of business opportunities in the Islamic Republic from Western
states to China and other non-Western powers.
There has been a
remarkable amount of sloppy reporting by mainstream newspapers over the last 24
hours or so with regard to the annexes accompanying the new sanctions
resolution. In reality, there are four annexes to the resolution.
One lists the designated “individuals and entities involved in nuclear or
ballistic missile activities”. Another annex lists “entities owned,
controlled, or acting on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps”.
A third lists “entities owned, controlled, or acting on behalf of the Islamic
Republic of Iran Shipping Lines”. Finally, the revised P-5+1 incentives
package presented to the Islamic Republic in 2008 is once again included as an
annex. The first three of these annexes are largely the product of
intensive negotiations between U.S. and Chinese diplomats.
–Some journalists
claim that there are forty-one new individuals captured in the annexes.
This is wrong. In fact, there is one new individual listed;
the other forty individuals are already listed in annexes to previous sanctions
resolutions.
–Among the entities
“involved in nuclear or ballistic missile activities”, the United States was
able to win the agreement of China and other Council members to include only
one bank that had not been previously listed—and that bank is a subsidiary to
Bank Mellat, which had been previously designated by the United Kingdom and the
United States.
–Ostensibly, there
are 15 entities listed as “owned, controlled, or acting on behalf of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps”. But this is seriously misleading.
There is, in fact, only one Revolutionary Guard-affiliated entity
captured in the annex—the Khatam al-Anbiya construction company. The
other 14 entities are all either subsidiaries of Khatam al-Anbiya or
subsidiaries of subsidiaries of Khatam al-Anbiya.
Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton says that this resolution will confront Iran with the most
significant sanctions it has ever faced. But that statement seems to
overlook the Iran-Iraq war, when the Islamic Republic was cut off from
international trade and economic activity to a much greater extent than this or
any Security Council resolution will ever achieve.
The Obama
Administration clearly has its talking points ready—it will claim that these
sanctions are broader and tougher than any previous sanctions. But this is
all political theater. No one in the Administration really believes that
these sanctions will compel Tehran to alter is decision-making and behavior.
But the Obama Administration is no longer interested in finding a solution to
the Iranian nuclear issue—if it ever was.
As we predicted
in a May
2009 Op Ed in The New York Times—before the Islamic Republic’s
controversial presidential election—the Obama Administration has already
“checked the box” to show that engaging Iran doesn’t work. Now it
has started the process of “checking the box” to show that the “broadest
and toughest” sanctions ever imposed on the Islamic Republic don’t work.
And that will leave the Obama Administration with no other options except formal
adoption of regime change as the explicit goal of its Iran policy—and/or
military strikes against the Islamic Republic.
–Flynt
Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett