PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama is faring better than
might be expected among Jewish voters, beating John
McCain in Gallup Poll Daily general-election matchups
and trailing Hillary Clinton only slightly in Jewish
Democrats' preferences for the Democratic nomination.
This is according to an aggregate of Gallup Poll
Daily tracking from April 1-30, including interviews
with close to 800 Jewish voters, and nearly 600 Jewish
Democratic voters.
Furthermore, Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds no
recent decline in the percentage of Jewish Democrats
favoring Obama for the Democratic presidential
nomination. Jewish Democrats continue to favor
Clinton, but by only a slim margin over Obama -- 50%
to 43% in April, compared with 51% to 41% in March.
In terms of the general election, Jewish voters
nationwide are nearly as likely to say they would vote
for Obama if he were the Democratic nominee running
against the Republican McCain (61%), as to say they
would vote for Clinton (66%).
According to Gallup's aggregated tracking data for
all of April, 61% of Jewish voters would vote for
Obama, much higher than the national average of 45% of
all registered voters.
Rather than declining between March and April,
support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters
has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in
favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61%
to 32%).
The results are similar for Clinton, who received
66% of the vote from Jewish Democrats in April,
compared with 27% for McCain -- a 39-point lead.
Clinton led McCain by 29 points in March, 61% to 32%.
Bottom Line
Evidence of Obama's concern about Jewish support
for his candidacy stretches back to at least January,
when he first publicly refuted Web-fueled rumors that
he is or has been a Muslim -- the implication of the
rumors being that he would be sympathetic to Muslim
political concerns and anti-Israel in his worldview.
At the same time, he also disassociated himself from
the anti-Semitic remarks of black activist Louis
Farrakhan, and has recently disassociated himself from
his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Thus, any damage to Jews' perceptions of Obama as
someone who would be sympathetic and fair to their
interests could have occurred much earlier in the
campaign. However, in terms of recent events --
particularly the ongoing controversy about why Obama
would have belonged to a church led by someone with
Wright's anti-Israel views (among other criticisms of
Wright) -- Gallup trends suggest Obama's Jewish
support is holding up.
Survey Methods
These results are based on monthly aggregates of
Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews for March 2008
and April 2008.
The March 2008 aggregate is based on interviews
conducted March 1-31, 2008. It includes interviews
with 24,290 voters, 632 Jewish voters, 12,045
Democratic voters, and 449 Jewish Democratic voters.
The April 2008 aggregate is based on interviews
conducted April 1-30, 2008. It includes interviews
with 30,311 voters, 790 Jewish voters, 14,989
Democratic voters, and 588 Jewish Democratic voters.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public
opinion polls.