Syria
isn't Serious; Lebanon is
Barry
Rubin
May 27, 2008
Why
is Israel negotiating with Syria and what happened in Lebanon? One of these
events may be the Middle East's most important development for 2008. Hint: it
isn't the first of them.
Let's consider why the two sides are "negotiating"
including the fact that they aren't negotiating.
There isn't going to be a deal. Both sides know it, yet have
good reason to be seen talking, indirectly that is.
Start with six factors that account for Israeli government
policy.
- Keep Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in power. It's not the only issue but sure
it's there. Olmert wants to claim he's amidst such important negotiations
that it's a sin to interfere. What's more important, he says, envelopes
filled with cash or peace? Olmert has used this strategy with Palestinian
talks for a while and is now jumping on a different horse. This doesn't mean
he's going to give away national security assets to save himself. The beauty
of this strategy is that he doesn't have to do that. Just making headlines
achieves this goal.
- Show everyone Israel wants peace. The country is indeed ready to take
chances and make compromises--though only if sufficiently rewarded and
proving this seeks to muster support from Western governments, media, and
public opinion, and also to ensure its base within Israel.
- Give Syria reason to show restraint. If Syria is gabbing away in contacts
that are all-win, no-lose for that dictatorship--it doesn't want to wreck
them by too much terror or another Hizballah war on Israel. Keeping things
quiet in the north lets Israel focus on the south, the Gaza Strip.
- Keep Turkey happy. Turkey is an important friend of Israel and has tied
its prestige to this initiative. Not real important but should be on the
list.
- Show the Palestinians that Israel has an alternate partner, as a way of
pressuring them. Israel gains a freer hand for dealing with them (see point
3, above) by at least momentarily widening the gap between Palestinian and
Syrian interests. Many of those backing the Syrian track don't believe
progress with the Palestinians is possible. If point 1 is most important for
Olmert's political calculations; point 5 is central for coalition partner
Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
- Media coverage and political statements ignore or misinterpret the fact
that Israel isn't negotiating with Syria. It's merely holding more
systematic, indirect contacts to establish whether Israeli preconditions for
direct negotiations can be met. Even though the answer is "no,"
this means Israel can do this at little cost and no substantive concessions.
Thus, Israel is doing something totally different from the
ideas of Senator Barack Obama which would bring disaster if he becomes the U.S.
president. If Syria is ready to move away from Iran, stop backing terrorist
groups, be ready to make full peace with Israel, and meet other conditions
(limiting forces in the Golan Heights, early warning stations, etc.), talks can
advance. When this doesn't happen the talks will either collapse or enter a
long, obviously dead, slow-motion process.
This game, in my opinion, is not a good thing, since it
weakens the struggle against the Iran-led bloc which is the region's most
important issue, but it is unlikely to inflict material damage to Israel's
strategic position.
What, then, are Syria's motives? It, too, has good reasons to
play the game.
- Syria's main problem is international isolation. The alliance with Iran as
well as sponsoring terror against Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel, has brought
Syria serious diplomatic and economic costs. Negotiating with Israel bails
it out of jail. The precedent is 1991-2000. Without concession or policy
shift, the dictatorship survived a decade when it was vulnerable (USSR's
collapse; America's Kuwait victory). Understandably, it wants to repeat this
triumph.
- The Damascus regime argues that if the West and Israel want it to talk
peace, they better treat it right. Forget about investigating Syrian-planned
murders in Lebanon; cancel the tribunal trying the regime's highest level to
murder.
- Ditto, forget about punishing Syria's building a secret nuclear weapon
installation with North Korea. Ignore Syria's backing for insurgents in Iraq
who kill Iraqis and American soldiers.
- Demand more concessions which might be obtained without any of their own.
- Stall for time in the belief that Obama will become president and follow a
pro-Syria policy. This is what they're saying in Damascus.
- Focus on what they really want: consolidating control over Lebanon without
interference from abroad. The world, including especially the UN and State
Department, did nothing to stop Hizballah-Iran-Syria victory in Lebanon,
then compounded the betrayal by pretending it was a step toward stability.
This probably would have happened without the Israel-Syria drama but that
couldn't hurt, so reasoned Syria's rulers.
Of course, the idea that Syria wants real peace, will
recognize Israel, move away from Iran, abandon Hamas or Hizballah, and cease
terrorist meddling in Iraq is purest nonsense. All these steps are against the
regime's vital interests. Yet, as demonstrated above, it can play the talks'
game without doing any of these things.
Meanwhile, Lebanon has fallen to Hizballah, another state
added to Iran's bloc. This catastrophe is intensified by ignoring it. One day,
this tragedy might be seen as equivalent to the 1938 sacrifice of Czechoslovakia
at Munich to appease Germany. Bashar is no Hitler (perhaps closer in this
parallel to Germany's junior partner, Italian dictator Benito Mussolini), but
toward Lebanon the United States and Europe, especially France, acted like
British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain at Munich.
And this is even without Iran having nuclear weapons or Obama
being in the White House. What could come next may be far worse unless the West
wakes up.
Barry
Rubin is director of the Global
Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle
East Review of International Affairs Journal. His latest books are The
Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), with Walter Laqueur
(Viking-Penguin); the paperback edition of The
Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan); A
Chronological History of Terrorism, with Judy Colp Rubin, (Sharpe);
and The
Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East
(Wiley). Prof. Rubin's columns can
be read online.