What's Really Not Happening in the West Bank
Elsewhere,
I have explained in great detail the changes in Israeli policy as well as
the implications of Western policy in the Gaza Strip: economic normalization
meaning also normalization of the existence of a Gaza Hamas-ruled statelet.
Israel, seeing that there is not going to be any "rollback" to
remove Hamas from power has basically accepted a containment startegy of
limited the military weaponry and capability of Hamas. Thus, Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu explained:
"The cabinet decision is the best one for Israel because it eliminates
Hamas' main propaganda claim and allows us and our international allies to
face our real concerns in the realm of security."
This is true as far as it goes except now Hamas merely switches to other
supply matters--the quantity of goods, defining certain things as having no
military value, demanding export rights--and even more important it forces
Israel to drop its goal of bringing down the regime. As I noted earlier,
this is not really a concession because, sadly, it was already clear that
this was impossible given Western protection of the Hamas government.
But these countries are not finished yet in trying to improve the
population's situation while actually helping Hamas.
The U.S. government and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as the
Quartet negotiator have been critical of Israel's concessions as
insufficient. While Israel is offering 130 truckloads a day of non-military
goods and construction material only for demonstrably non-military projects,
the U.S. and European governments want 400 trucks a day, which is what some
aid agencies say is needed.
In addition, they want the Gaza Strip to be able to export goods, mainly
agricultural, in order to make money.
On one level, the whole debate is absurd since they could just ask Egypt to
open the border to this extent. But, of course, the intention is to pressure
Israel. Ironically, if they demanded Egypt let more sent in, this would run
up against Cairo's argument that it doesn't want to strengthen a
revolutionary Islamist statelet on its own border.
It is amazing to see the extent to which the Western politicians are simply
100 percent deaf to the strategic implications of these issues. They don't
want a Hamas regime attacking Israel or one that's military strengthened,
but they just don't understand that any Hamas regime is going to attack
Israel eventually--and not that far in the future.
The concept that a Hamas regime is going to spread revolutionary Islamism,
subvert Israel, make any peace agreement impossible, strengthen Iranian
influence in the Arab world, or do a half-dozen other things damaging to
regional stability and Western influence does not seem to be crossing their
minds.
It is easy to call Western leaders and diplomats names (fools, idiots, etc.)
or to make fun of them. Yet on this specific failure such a response seems
especially appropriate.
I
read an article on Foreign Policy blog which, like many things I see on the
Middle East, convinces me of the precise opposite conclusion to what the
author wants me to think. The article, by Hussein Ibish, a Palestinian
activist in the United States, is entitled: "While No One's Looking,
the Palestinians Are Building a State: Now it's time for the rest of the
world to pitch in. "
Well, I'm looking and I don't see any Palestinian state-building going on.
Yes, there is some improvement in the West Bank security forces, including
U.S. training, but the changes are not enormous. And at any moment, these
forces could launch a war on Israel or start fighting each other. Yes, there
is some economic improvement happening but it's based on foreign aid money
and much of it is unproductive (i.e., real estate and housing speculation).
And again, it could be blown up any moment in a new Palestinian-Israeli or
Fatah-Hamas war or just major instability.
A more accurate title for this article would be: The Rest of the World has
Pitched in, Paid Lots of Money, and the Palestinians Still Aren't Building a
State!" The article provides not a single example of any material
action being done to create strong institutions or do anything else that a
state requires. Indeed, the only actual action was the passing of a
resolution saying that the Palestinian Authority is building a state.
Here's
the link but if I were you I wouldn't waste the time on it.
Incidentally, his claim that half the PA budget comes from Palestinian
taxation is totally ridiculous. But then any nonsense will do to drop on the
West. The Western journalistic and intellectual discussion today is all too
often like restaurant patrons who will gobble up offal gladly and proclaim
it haute cuisine.
What's happening, though, and that's why this article is of some
significance, is that the PA is trying to build a foundation for a
unilateral declaration of independence in a year or two. That doesn't mean
it will ever happen but rather than negotiate with Israel, a process
requiring compromises and concessions, the PA prefers to have the world
recognize it as a state without having to do anything: end the conflict,
agree to resettle Palestinian refugees in Palestine, recognize Israel as a
Jewish state, provide Israel with security guarantees, and so on.
Remember that the Palestinian Authority originated about 17 years ago. That
means babies born then are now adults and the PA has done remarkably little
to prepare for stable and well-governed statehood, not to mention losing the
Gaza Strip to Hamas. And how can places like Foreign Policy blog run
articles without a single real argument to prove its thesis?.