SUMMER 2010
2010
U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS UPDATE
OVERVIEW
When
the cycle started with a rash of GOP retirements, it was realistic that Dems
could add to their then 60 seat majority, and the only Tea Party people heard of
happened over 230 years ago. How
times have changed! Now there is
even a remote chance that the GOP could net 10 seats and retake the Senate.
While unlikely, what is likely is the GOP taking the former seats of President
Obama and Vice Pres. Biden and defeating Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Each party has 18 seats up and nine of the top twelve seats most likely
to change hands are Dem (North Dakota, Delaware, Indiana, Arkansas, Nevada,
Illinois, Pennsylvania, Washington and Colorado) with ND, DE, IN and AR almost
definite. For the GOP, only Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire are in danger (plus
now Independent Charlie Crist could win the open GOP seat in Florida and caucus
with the Dems.
By
far, the most compelling factor of this cycle has been the influence of the
conservative tea party movement whose nominal parents are Sarah Palin and Jim
DeMint. It has propelled GOP nominees Mike Lee in Utah, Rand Paul in Kentucky,
Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Marco Rubio in Florida over establishment
candidates/incumbents, and the turnout of tea partiers could be the key in
several close races. However, the far right views of some of these nominees
(Paul and Angle) turn what could have been easy GOP wins into question marks,
and the fact that John McCain and Lisa Murkowski are facing serious challenges
from the right has to put many GOP Senators on edge. Only in Arkansas (and to a lesser extent CO) did Dems
experience far left primary challenge that made little general election sense.
The greatest factor hurting Dems in the 2010 cycle, and directly tied to
the rise of the tea party movement, is displeasure with the Obama agenda (health
care, deficit spending, immigration) and this applies to both voters on the
right and the left (who were crucial for Dems in 2008).
Also, the current economic slump, despite its deep roots, has been used
effectively against Dems. GOP closeness to the oil industry in the wake of the
BP oil spill is the latest factor entering the electoral equation.
Finally, Union and corporate campaign contributions, now legal after Citizens
United, is another unknown factor this cycle.
*
Denotes Washington PAC support in current or previous election cycle.
ALABAMA
*RICHARD
SHELBY (R) Elected
1986, 2004 Winning Percentage 68%
Defense Appropriations
A
very fine record and on a key subcommittee
The
deep-pocketed Shelby had little trouble shaking off a tea party challenge in the
GOP primary and will have no problem defeating the Dem. nominee, Attorney
William Barnes, in the general.
-
ALASKA
*LISA
MURKOWSKI (R)
Appointed 2002, 2004 Winning Percentage 49%
Excellent
record of support
The
hard-working scandal-free Murkowski’s re-election seemed to be a certainty
last year when former Gov. and GOP superstar Sarah Palin passed on a primary
challenge. However, in early June, Palin endorsed “fellow constitutional
conservative” attorney Joe Miller August primary challenge and with the tea
party on board. Even though Miller
is virtually unknown and underfunded, given what has transpired elsewhere, with
her TARP vote and pro-choice views, Murkowski could be in trouble. There is no
love lost between Palin, who beat Murkowski’s father in the ’04 Gov.
primary, and Murkowski, who said Palin “abandoned” Alaska when she left
office before her term ended. The
open primary format should help Murkowski. In a general match up, Murkowski
looks good against likely Democratic nominee Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams.
-
ARIZONA
*JOHN MCCAIN (R) Elected
1987, 2004 Winning Percentage 77%
Armed Services – Ranking Member
A staunch and principled supporter over the years
After four terms distinguished by pragmatism and
bi-partisanship, McCain has accomplished much nationally and for Arizona.
But not even the 2008 GOP presidential nominee is immune from the
anti-incumbent anti-moderate fervor on the right.
He faces a credible August primary challenge from former Rep. and radio
talk show host J.D. Hayworth. Polls
have Hayworth in striking distance and McCain’s long tenure in Washington and
vote for TARP could be sticking points for voters. Hayworth though, with a
checkered record in Congress (see Abramoff) and questionable post-Congress
business activities is no breath of fresh air. McCain has plenty of money for
offense and defense and Sarah Palin
has stuck by McCain. While Hayworth got to within 5-7 points in early Spring
polling, the two latest polls have McCain up 47% to 36% and 52% to 40%.
A big question is what Independents, who are allowed to vote in the GOP
primary, might do. Assuming McCain
wins the primary, it should be a much easier time in the general against the
likely Democratic nominee, ex-Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman.
-
ARKANSAS
BLANCHE LINCOLN (D) Elected
1998, 2004 Winning Percentage 56%
Consistently supportive
Having mounted an impressive comeback victory in the
June Dem. run-off over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (and his $10M in union money), the
moderate Lincoln is reloading and pivoting right for another bruising fight
against the GOP nominee four term Rep. John Boozman (fine record).
The 49 year-old Lincoln is a seventh generation Arkansan and is a tough,
experienced campaigner with ample funding.
Former Pres. Bill Clinton proved a huge asset in the primary and will be
there again in the general and Lincoln’s chairmanship of the Senate
Agriculture Committee is very important for the state.
However, the anti-Obama, anti-Washington sentiment in Arkansas is
incredibly strong and Lincoln faces a severe uphill battle.
Boozman will tie Lincoln to the President and his policies, and her
primary ad boasting that she was the deciding vote for health care reform is
Exhibit A (healthcare reform is opposed by almost two thirds of Arkansas
voters). Also, Boozman,
unlike other GOP nominees running against vulnerable Dems, is
experienced, well known, and has very high favorable ratings. In both pre and
post-primary polls Boozman led Lincoln by almost 30 points (61%to32% in a June
poll), and most everyone has this race a solid GOP takeover.
-
CALIFORNIA
*BARBARA
BOXER (D) Elected
1992, 2004 Winning Percentage 58%
Foreign
Relations
A very fine record on our issues
Boxer faces former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
in what could be a surprisingly close contest in this “left coast” state.
Fiorina won a resounding victory in the June GOP primary and as a
Washington outsider, experienced business leader, and breast cancer survivor;
she can appeal to a wide range of voters. She
can self-fund and should benefit from the voter outreach efforts that have been
part of megabucks campaign of GOP Gov. nominee Meg Whitman who has already put
$90M of her own money into the Gov. race.
A post-primary poll had Boxer up 48% to 43%, and Boxer has not led
Fiorina by more than single digits in any recent poll.
Fiorina though is a political neophyte who is prone to verbal gaffes
(such as a petty comment about Boxer’s hairstyle) and the congenial GOP
primary will be nothing like the blistering well-funded onslaught coming from
the Boxer. Fiorina’s mixed record
at HP and conservative views are ripe targets in a left-leaning state suffering
high unemployment and where Obama still has a 60% approval rating and health
care reform is favored. Boxer is an excellent campaigner and fundraiser and
Fiorina will have to significantly raise her game (and money) to stay
competitive. This race could get
pretty nasty. If the GOP pulls off
an upset it will be the political equivalent of the “big one”, but don’t
bet against Boxer.
CONNECTICUT
-- OPEN
*CHRIS
DODD (D)
Elected 1980, 2004 Winning Percentage 66%
Foreign
Relations
Usually supportive on our issues
It is fitting that in a contest featuring the former
CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment (expected GOP nominee Linda McMahon) this
race has had as many twists as a professional wrestling match.
First, an embattled Dodd, facing a tough contest against his then likely
GOP opponent, former Rep. Rob Simmons, called it quits and tagged out for the
virtually unbeatable state AG, Richard Blumenthal.
Then Simmons effectively gets tossed from the ring by the previously
unknown, but $16M self-funding juggernaut, McMahon.
Blumenthal is soundly beating McMahon until May when he sent reeling with
revelations that he falsely claimed to have served in Vietnam and the race
became a dead heat in the polls. However, with solid Dem. support, an admirable
26-year public record, and effective damage control Blumenthal has re-steadied
himself and is now back on track to defeat McMahon (who still faces a
businessman/tea party activist in the GOP primary).
While McMahon has millions more to spend, and some think Simmons could
even reappear if McMahon stumbles, this race is Blumenthal’s to lose.
-
COLORADO
MICHAEL
BENNET (D) Appointed
January 2009 to fill Ken Salazar’s seat
A
fine record so far
With two hotly contested primaries and a likely close
general election, Colorado is a major focus for both parties.
On the Dem side, mid-mannered incumbent Michael Bennet, the former Denver
School Superintendent appointed to fill the seat when Ken Salazar became
Interior Secretary is battling former CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, a fiery
progressive. In March, Bennet, with
no previous elective experience or deep Colorado roots lost the Dem. party
caucus straw poll to Romanoff. However,
since then, Bennet, who has a solid record on the key Dem issues and the strong
support from national Dems and Obama, has used his massive cash advantage to
take to the airwaves to blunt Romanoff’s strident anti-DC attacks.
His campaign skills have noticeably improved and in two recent primary
polls Bennet led by 15 points or more and looks good going into the August 10
primary. On the GOP side, the early
frontrunner and establishment pick, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton has run into
a tea party buzz saw in the form of Ken Buck, the Weld Co. District Attorney.
Buck is a “folksy” (Princeton educated) hard right conservative who
has financial support of outside conservative groups, an effective in-state
grassroots network, and the endorsements of two former primary opponents (plus
conservative icon Sen. Jim DeMint). Recent
polls show Buck with a commanding double digit lead over Norton.
While Norton has countered with positive internal polling, she is in
trouble. The well known Norton has the resources for a strong finish but so does
Buck. In general election
match-ups, both Buck and Norton are slightly ahead of Bennet (46% to 43% and 47%
to 44% respectively). If Buck is
the nominee some of his far right positions could be problematic in the general.
Either way, the general should be very close and almost all commentators
rate this race a “toss up.”
DELAWARE
-- OPEN
TED
KAUFMAN (D) Appointed
2008 to fill Joe Biden’s seat
Foreign Relations
In January 2009, Kaufman was appointed to fill the
seat left vacant by now VP Joe Biden and the Dems were riding high.
The “plan” was for Kaufman to keep the seat warm for a successful
2010 run by Biden’s son, Beau, the 41 year-old state Attorney General who
would be returning from a year’s deployment in Iraq in September 2009.
However, while Beau was in Iraq, the Dem fortunes started to turn.
More so, on the GOP side, popular Rep. and former two-term Gov. Mike
Castle (fine record), who had already won statewide eleven times, entered in the
race. In January, Biden
announced he would not run, avoiding what would have been a very difficult race.
The Dems though do have a very credible candidate in County Executive
Chris Coons who has shown he can raise money, but Coons currently trails the
better funded Castle by 20 points in the polls.
Coons will make Castle’s two decades in D.C. an issue, but he
realistically has little chance defeating Castle and this seat is considered a
solid GOP pick up.
FLORIDA
-- OPEN
GEORGE
LEMIEUX (R) Appointed 2008 to fill Mel
Martinez’s seat
Armed Services
The Sunshine State Senate contest is setting up to be
a most intriguing race this cycle. When
the cycle started moderate GOP Governor Charlie Crist was a virtual shoo-in to
win the seat. However, by January, the Obama friendly Crist was looking at a
crushing defeat in the GOP primary at the hands 38 year old ex-state House
Majority Leader Marco Rubio, whose was backed by massive tea party/Club for
Growth support. In April then, with
much moxie, and $8M on hand, Crist left the GOP to continue his run as an
Independent. While awkward at
first, this move seems to be working for the well-known and experienced Crist.
He is now consistently winning three way general election polls beating
Rubio (by 4 to 10 points) and destroying “likely” Dem. nominee Rep. Kendrick
Meek (fine record). Meek
might not even make it to the general as he is facing a late arriving
self-funded and well-publicized challenge from billionaire real estate investor
Jeff Greene. The flashy Greene, whose best man was Mike Tyson, has been a FL
resident for just three years, but with his considerable resources is
overwhelming the little known Meek. Neither
Dem though seems capable of winning the general.
The key to this race is whether Crist, who
currently has the support of 40% of Dems, can hold on to them once the
Dem nominee is set and becomes better known
In moves and statements as Governor and candidate Crist definitely is
trying to hold onto Dems and he also seems to be benefiting from the leadership
he is showing in dealing with the BP oil spill.
At the same though, a possible campaign finance scandal is brewing.
This race will definitely heat up with the GOP going all out as now there
is the possibility that if Crist wins he will caucus with the Dems when he gets
to the Senate.
GEORGIA
JOHNNY
ISAKSON (R) Elected
2004, 2004 Winning Percentage 58%
An excellent supportive record
In March, the 65 year-old Isakson was hospitalized
several times for various ailments. He
has recovered, but in April the Dems recruited one of their best possible
candidates in state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, one of just two
statewide Democratic officeholders. Nonetheless,
if Isakson’s health holds up, he should little trouble getting re-elected in
the GOP-dominated Peach State.
HAWAII
*DANIEL
INOUYE (D) Elected
1962, 2004 Winning Percentage 76%
Appropriations
– Chairman, Defense Subcommittee
A veteran committed supporter for
fifty years now with a key chairmanship
The 85 year-old Inouye continues at his usual fast
pace chairing the most important panel in the Senate, and is now the second
longest serving Senator in history. Given his accomplishments since his heroic
service in WWII he should easily win re-election (no opponent yet) for a ninth
term – much to our delight!
IDAHO
*MIKE
CRAPO (R) Elected
1998, 2004 Winning Percentage 99%
A perfect record of support
In his 2004 re-election “contest” in the very red
Gem state, Crapo did not even have a Dem opponent. This year he will have a Dem opponent (and even a primary
opponent), but will claim another landslide victory.
-
ILLINOIS
-- OPEN
ROLAND
BURRIS (D) Appointed
2009 to fill Barack Obama’s seat
Armed Services
One of the most closely watched contests in the
nation pits five term GOP Rep. Mark Kirk (excellent record) against 34 year-old
Dem. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in a headline grabbing neck-and-neck race
for President Obama’s old seat. In
April, after barely escaping a contentious, negative Dem primary, things got
even worse for Giannoulias when the family bank he once managed (and alleged to
have lent to the mob), failed and was taken over by federal regulators (at a
cost of $394M to the taxpayers). Kirk
started to pull slightly ahead in the polls and some even speculated Giannoulias
might be replaced. However, in late
May, Kirk, a decorated Naval intelligence officer provided Giannoulias a
lifeline with much publicized revelations that Kirk had embellished his already
impressive military resume. Kirk
has now fallen back into a virtual tie with Giannoulias in the latest poll and
with the almost a quarter of voters undecided, both men have serious work to do.
In a positive sign for Giannoulias, VP Joe Biden recently went to Chicago
for a fundraiser in a clear signal the White House will be seriously involved in
helping Obama’s basketball buddy
retain his old seat. Illinois
is a blue state that currently has no statewide GOP officeholders and thus
naturally difficult for Kirk. However,
he is an intelligent moderate with a social record that can definitely appeal to
Dems and with the Blago corruption trial in the background, and Giannoulias’
flaws, he can definitely win. Kirk
could also be helped by a Green party candidate, who took 14% in a recent poll.
This race should be a nasty one that goes down to the wire. The PAC is
supporting Kirk.
INDIANA
-- OPEN
*EVAN
BAYH (D) Elected
1998, 2004 Winning Percentage 62%
Armed Services, Select Intelligence
A consistent supporter with a fine
record and a bright future who will be missed
Former GOP Sen. Dan Coats (very fine record) made
some stumbles early on but prevailed in a contested GOP primary, and will face
two-term Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth (also very fine record) to fill Evan
Bayh’s seat. While not well known statewide, Ellsworth is a very viable
candidate and Dems have been hammering Coats for his post-Senate career as a
lobbyist. Obama did win Indiana in 2008 but his popularity has since plunged in
the state. Coats has solidified his
GOP support, and several May polls had Coats up by double digits.
While this race should be competitive, it’s hard to see the Coats and
the GOP losing this one.
IOWA
*CHUCK
GRASSLEY (R) Elected 1980, 2004 Winning Percentage 70%
A committed supporter for many years
Grassley has won his four previous re-elections each
by over 65% but in this anti-Washington year, the 30 year veteran is facing some
resistance from voters. The Dems
think they have a strong nominee in ’82 Gov nominee/ ex-U.S. Atty. Roxanne
Conlin and a May polls had her within 10 points (49% to 40%).
In a late June poll though, Grassley was up 54% to 37%.
While Grassley may have to work harder than in past elections, with over
$6M in the bank, the popular and folksy incumbent is good shape for re-election.
KANSAS
-- OPEN
*SAM
BROWNBACK (R) Appointed 1996, 2004 Winning Percentage 69%
A dedicated supporter who is running
for Governor and will be missed
The next Senator from the Sunflower State will be the
winner of a hotly contested August GOP primary between two conservative
Congressmen, Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt (both
with only fair records). The
two have been going at it for almost a year, and now with a month to go, both
the polls and the increasing negativity of Tiahrt ads indicate that the better
funded Moran is likely to win. Expect
a bitter fight to the end though. Either man should beat the likely Dem nominee, state Sen.
David Haley in November.
-
KENTUCKY
-- OPEN
*JIM
BUNNING (R) Elected
1998, 2004 Winning Percentage 51%
An almost perfect record
Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Libertarian
icon Rep. Ron Paul, scored a huge tea party victory against the GOP
establishment in a hard fought GOP primary win over Sec. of State Trey Grayson.
Now he faces Dem Attorney General Jim Conway in a race that is Paul’s
to lose, which could happen. While
the Bluegrass State is solidly Red, Paul’s far right views and blunt style --
openly questioning the Civil Rights Act and attacking government programs key to
Kentuckians – have already gotten him in trouble.
Once ahead of Conway by 20 points, Paul was up only 49% to 41% in a June
poll. Conway is also a solid
candidate, but after a divisive primary, Dems are still not united behind him.
Paul seems smart enough to tone down his views, and with sufficient
funding from outside conservative groups, he remains the favorite to win.
The candidate debate will be must-see TV, and this race will be hotly
contested down to the wire.
-
LOUISIANA
*DAVID
VITTER (R) Elected
2004, 2004 Winning Percentage 51%
A perfect record of support in his
first term
Vitter’s involvement in a 2007 prostitution scandal
does not seem to have hurt him, and Louisiana is a relatively conservative state
where Obama is not at all popular. However,
Vitter still faces a stiff challenge from three-term Dem Rep. Charlie Melancon
(very fine record). Melancon is a
pro-life, pro-gun, fiscal conservative and in a June poll Vitter was up only 46%
to 37%. With the oil spill now
overshadowing all issues in the Bayou State, Melancon has been hammering Vitter
for “pro-BP” positions. But
with oil drilling a big part of the state’s economy, Vitter has been hitting
back trying to tie Melancon to the Administration’s call for a ban on offshore
drilling. While Vitter has marginal
approval ratings, he is much better known and has almost a 2 to 1 money
advantage. He has run a smart
campaign, and it seems that he will be able to retain his seat.
MARYLAND
*BARBARA
MIKULSKI (D) Elected 1986, 2004 Winning Percentage 65%
Defense and Foreign Operations
Appropriations Subcommittees
A wonderful supportive record with
service on vital panels
No contest in the Free State as the feisty and
popular Barbara Mikulski will be back for her fifth term.
MISSOURI
-- OPEN
*KIT
BOND (R) Elected
1986, 2004 Winning Percentage 56%
Defense
and Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittees
A key player whose support will be missed
This race between former Whip Rep. Roy Blunt (very
fine record) and Dem Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is a battle between two
of the Show Me State’s most prominent political families and is turning into a
barnburner. Both are experienced
and well funded candidates and as the summer heats up so have the attacks.
Carnahan is casting Blunt as a Washington insider in the pocket of big
oil while Blunt is increasingly trying to tie Carnahan to unpopular Obama
policies (health care, immigration).
Since the beginning of the year, Blunt had maintained a 4 to 8 point lead
in the polls, but a post-oil spill poll in June had him ahead only 45% to 44%
and Blunt’s ties to big oil (he is a top recipient of oil contributions) could
be major issue. However, for Missouri voters (and elsewhere) a top issue come
Election Day is likely to be the economy and unemployment and if the situation
has not improved by November, this spells trouble for Carnahan.
This race is a toss up with an ever so slight edge to Blunt.
NEVADA
*HARRY
REID (D) Elected
1986, 2004 Winning Percentage 61%
The Majority Leader has compiled a
fine record on our issues
Riding a late tidal wave of tea party support, 60
year old former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle surged ahead of two more well-known
candidates to win the June GOP primary to set up a match with Reid.
While Angle’s victory was impressive, given her far right views on many
issue and inexperience, her win is widely viewed as “a gift” to the
embattled Majority Leader. So far
the race has been a referendum on Reid whose stewardship of the liberal Obama
agenda and Washington insider status, combined with high unemployment in the
state, has made him very unpopular among many voters.
In pre-primary polls, Reid lost to all GOP comers by double digits,
including Angle and is approval numbers are dismal.
However, Reid will try to use his massive warchest (over $10M) to
spotlight Angle’s long history of controversial views (phase out social
security, eliminate the Education department, bring nuclear waste to Nevada) to
essentially scare voters into keeping him around.
Nonetheless, the unpopularity of Reid and the Obama agenda is deeply
rooted and the first post-primary poll had Angle up 50% to 39%.
Angle also is bringing in outside professional help and will be a money
magnet. Reid has a steep uphill
battle to get re-elected but he is a tireless campaigner and is already on the
attack, and is assured of full national Dem support.
The Nevada desert will be scorching this summer but this race could be
even hotter.
-
NEW HAMPSHIRE
-- OPEN
JUDD
GREGG (R) Elected
1992, 2004 Winning Percentage 66%
Not particularly involved in our
issues
It had been assumed that moderate and former State
Attorney General Kelly Ayotte would prevail in the late (Sept 14th)
GOP primary without too much difficulty and then square off against two-term Dem
Rep. Paul Hodes (fine record). Polls
have shown Ayotte, who has the strong backing of Sen. Gregg, ahead of Hodes by 7
to 15 points (whose support of TARP and Dem spending measures is not popular).
However, Ayotte is now being dogged by an investigation into a Ponzi scheme in
the state that flourished on her watch. It has revved up an already serious
primary challenge by self-funding businessman Bill Binnie and provided an
opening for Hodes. While Hodes is a
strong candidate, given the independent, anti-government bent of NH voters, the
GOP should hold this seat.
-
NEW
YORK
*KIRSTEN
GILLIBRAND (D) – Appointed 2009 to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat
A good record in her brief House career
*CHARLES
SCHUMER (D) Elected
1998,
2004 Winning
Percentage 71%
A perfect record of support
The Empire State features two races for the price of
one, and both Democrats (especially Schumer), despite falling favorability
ratings, are looking solid for re-election. Schumer, sitting on a mountain of
campaign money, also has a 2-to-1 advantage over both of his possible GOP
opponents – former CIA officer Gary Bernsten, and political consultant Jay
Townsend. Gillibrand has more work to do. In a June poll, Gillibrand was up 50%
to 38% over ex-Port Authority Cmmsr Bruce Blakeman, up 49% to 34% over economist
David Malpass, and up 49% to 38% over former Rep. Joe DioGuardi (father of
“American Idol” judge Kara DioGuardi). Gillibrand was a natural target for the GOP but all the big
names passed, and with her $7M warchest, a loss by either Dem is almost
inconceivable.
NORTH
CAROLINA
RICHARD
BURR (R)
Elected 2004, 2004 Winning Percentage 52%
A perfect record of support
In the blue-trending Tar Heel State, Burr is
considered vulnerable, but while national Dems believed more moderate former
state Sen./Iraq war vet Cal Cunningham had the best chance to beat him, it was
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who had a disappointing Senate run in 2002)
who won the June 22nd runoff. Dems
have quickly regrouped around Marshall and the race is shaping up to be a
classic liberal versus conservative battle across all the major issues.
Burr will be on the defense for his Washington insider and pro-Wall
Street positions, but with $9M on hand he ready for the fight.
Dem polls have Burr up by 1 point and GOP polls have him up 12 points.
Marshall has strong appeal with women and if she can raise enough money, this
race could tighten up considerably. But
the key will be whether all those new voters who came out for Obama in 2008 will
come out again.
NORTH DAKOTA -- OPEN
*BYRON
DORGAN (D) Elected
1992, 2004 Winning Percentage 68%
Defense Appropriations Subcommittee
Compiled a fine record on our issues
In an easy pick for the GOP of the cycle, we welcome
to the Senate popular Governor, John Hoeven.
OHIO
- OPEN
GEORGE
VOINOVICH (R) Elected 1998, 2004 Winning Percentage 64%
An almost unblemished record of
support
Former Bush OMB Director and six-term GOP Rep. Rob
Portman faces Dem Lt. Gov Lee Fisher in what is currently the tightest race of
the cycle. The two are dead even in
several polls. Given the dour
economic situation and growing unpopularity of Obama, Portman should be well
placed to win. However, Portman,
with a record as neither a fiscal conservative nor a social conservative while
in Washington, has so far failed to energize tea partiers and conservatives.
Dems are also attacking Portman for his work in the Bush Administration
and in a lot of ways this race will be “Bush v. Obama.” Portman is attacking
Fisher for his performance as “jobs czar” and in this hard hit rust belt
state, the economic situation on Election Day could be crucial.
Portman also has an $8M to $1M cash advantage and with a very close,
high-profile Governor’s race sucking up oxygen this advantage could be key.
Dems though will go all out to capture this seat as it is one of few pick
up opportunities this cycle.
OKLAHOMA
TOM
COBURN (R)
Elected 2004, 2004 Winning Percentage 53%
An excellent record of support
When Coburn finally declared a week before the June
filing deadline that he would run for re-election, all the intrigue of this race
ended. Coburn faces no serious
primary and general election opposition and the stubborn obstetrician will most
definitely be returning to his role as the “thorn in the side of Senate
Democrats.”
-
OREGON
*RON
WYDEN (D)
Elected 1996 (special election), 2004 Winning Percentage 63%
A down the line dependable supporter
A June poll showed Wyden with only a 10 point (47% to
37%) lead over GOP nominee, law professor Jim Huffman (another June poll had
Wyden up by 13 points). However,
Wyden’s relatively poor showing has more to do with the general anti-incumbent
attitude among voters than a desire to elect Huffman Senator.
This election should be a relatively easy lay-up for the basketball
playing, collegial and well-respected Wyden in the blue Beaver State.
PENNSYLVANIA
-- OPEN
*ARLEN
SPECTER (D) Elected
1980, 2004 Winning Percentage 53%
Defense Appropriations Subcommittee
A key supporter on a vital panel
Specter’s loss sets up what will be a closely
watched battle between former admiral and two-term Dem Rep. Joe Sestak
(undistinguished record) and conservative former GOP Rep. Pat Toomey (fine
record). Toomey, who lost a 2004
primary against Specter, has wisely tacked to the middle and with $5M on hand he
is ready to go in a red-shifting PA landscape. On the other hand, Sestak’s unconventional, low-key
campaign style and lackluster fundraising is a growing concern to Dems, but his
outsider, short-term in Congress, solidly Dem views are fundamental strengths in
this race that can draw voters. In
two post primary polls, the two traded small leads and in another poll they were
tied. Dems are going to hit
Toomey hard for his conservative positions (although he did endorse Sonia
Sotomayer) while the GOP will hit back on unpopular Obama policies that Sestak
supports. Pennsylvania has hosted
many hard-hitting Senate races and this one could be one of the best.
SOUTH
CAROLINA
*JIM
DEMINT (R) Elected
2004, 2004 Winning Percentage 54%
An almost perfect record of support
Conservative kingmaker Jim DeMint is coasting, while
Dems have heartburn over their nominee Alvin Greene. Some Dems accused Greene of
being a GOP plant and wanted him replaced since Greene is unemployed, faces an
obscenity felony, and was involuntarily discharged from the Army. This only adds
interest to a boring race.
SOUTH
DAKOTA
*JOHN
THUNE (R) Elected
2004, 2004 Winning Percentage 51%
Armed Services
Pretty consistent support on our issues
This up and coming incumbent who is increasingly
being mentioned as a possible 2012 GOP presidential candidate, can safely look
beyond November with no serious challenger on the ballot. Thune, who beat
Majority Leader Daschle in 2004, is expected to campaign for many of his
colleagues thereby enhancing his own political clout.
UTAH
*ROBERT
BENNETT (R) Elected
1992, 2004 Winning Percentage 69%
A fairly good record
For most of the very conservative 3500 delegates at
Utah’s GOP nominating convention, Bennett’s vote for TARP and his interest
in health care reform were unforgivable sins and as such they kept him off the
primary ballot. In the recent GOP
primary of two tea party conservatives, the narrow winner was Mike Lee, the
former counsel to former Gov. Jon Huntsman.
Lee should have little trouble defeating Dem. nominee, ABC Commissioner
Sam Granato.
VERMONT
PATRICK
LEAHY (D) Elected
1974, 2004 Winning Percentage 71%
Dismal
record on our issues
Barring
the greatest of upsets by a token Democratic candidate, the very leftish Leahy
will return for his seventh term.
WASHINGTON
*PATTY
MURRAY (D) Elected
1992, 2004 Winning Percentage 55%
A usually reliable supporter
With the last minute entrance of two-time GOP
Governor nominee Dino Rossi, a good campaigner and fundraiser with name
recognition, Murray now has real race on her hands.
For months, polls have had the two neck and neck and the first
post-entrance poll had Murray up just 48% to 47%. Rossi also catches a break with the state’s “top two”
primary system, which means he can avoid a direct confrontation with fellow GOP
candidate, former Redskins football player/farmer Clint Didier, a Tea Partier
who has been endorsed by the Sarah Palin. In
this anti-D.C., anti-spending atmosphere, Murray has her work cut out for her.
But with a $6M to $600K advantage over Rossi, and the full support of national
Dems, she is well prepared for a tough race. Rossi also has lost twice statewide in six years, and Obama
still has an overall favorable rating in the state. This will be one of the
marquee races of the cycle.
-
WISCONSIN
*RUSS
FEINGOLD (D) Elected 1992, 2004 Winning Percentage 55%
An acceptable record of support
Feingold will likely face GOP businessman Ron Johnson
who was endorsed by the state Party and is planning to spend $10-15 million of
his own money against Feingold. Polls
put Johnson within striking distance and he is a credible opponent.
Feingold, with $5M on hand, has recently gone on the attack
characterizing Johnson as a pro-business social extremist in the mold of
Paul/Angle. Feingold can
also blunt some tea party support for Johnson given Feingold’s opposition to
TARP and the Patriot Act. This race
could get interesting in these anti-incumbent times, but Feingold is hardly an
establishment player and he is an experienced campaigner and good fundraiser.
If Feingold loses, then it’s likely the Dems will lose the Senate!