Column for May 10, 2005

 Morris J. Amitay

A medieval philosopher once proclaimed that “the height of folly is being unable to distinguish between friend and foe”.  You would think that you don’t have to be that deep a thinker to arrive at this conclusion.  The fact that there are foreign leaders who can visit your country all smiles - but really not wish you well seems elementary.  More often than not, however, too much of a positive spin is invariably put on an official visit or a friendly statement by a foreign head of state or government by our Israeli friends.  Given Israel’s relative isolation in the region this would seem a natural reaction – but it can also be dangerous.

 It is disheartening, to say the least, to see Israeli politicians and commentators welcoming scraps of legitimacy doled out by assorted tyrants.  Whether it was Putin’s recent visit, or statements by Mubarak, (who still refuses to make an official visit to Israel after 24 years in power) the fact remains that both Russian and Egyptian policies pose dangers to Israel’s security. 

 Israel earned its independence and sovereignty the old fashioned way - with the blood, sweat and sacrifice of its people.  For twenty years it had to face and fight Egyptian armies trained and equipped by the Soviet Union.  Now, it seems the “help” Egypt and Russia are both offering for the “peace process” is not economic assistance, but the arming and training of the Palestinian security forces.  These are the same forces that include numerous wanted terrorists, some of whom have already used their post-Oslo CIA training to murder Israelis.  These are also the same Palestinian security forces who now welcome Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists into their ranks, instead of disarming them as agreed upon.  Mahmoud Abbas already has in his Fatah movement the Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade, an offshoot of the PLO’s Tanzim militia which while directly involved in numerous acts of murder and mayhem is supposed to be under his control. 

 Who did Putin really think the 50 armored vehicles he offered to the Palestinians would be used against?  And can anyone doubt that this ex-KGB operative’s motive is to expand Russia’s influence in the Middle East by supplying weapons and training?  It was the height of hypocrisy to hear Putin refer to the Holocaust during his visit to Israel while at the same time not only defending his supply of the latest anti-aircraft missiles to Syria, but continuing to boost Iran’s nuclear capabilities.  Smiles are surely more welcome than scowls.  But in the game of nations deeds always trump words.

 Speaking of words, Putin’s incredible statement that “the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” – says a lot about the direction in which he is leading Russia.  Put bluntly, Putin is no friend of Israel, or of the United States, or of democracy in his own country.  The increasing consolidation of all the levers of power in his hands, and Russia’s interference in the USSR’s former republics mark him as a growing threat to US interests in the Middle East and elsewhere.  Fortunately, Russia’s dire economic and demographic problems coupled with recent events in Georgia and Ukraine limit Putin’s mischief making activities.  But it has now become clear that Russia’s desire for a greater role in the Middle East has serious negative implications for both Israel and the United States. 

 Similarly, Egypt’s President for life, Hosni Mubarak, the recipient of billions of dollars in US economic and military aid is assiduously working to undermine Israel while cracking down on dissent at home.  Seeking to assert Egypt’s leadership in the Arab world and to groom his son, Gamal, as his successor, the Egyptian dictator seized the opportunity to insert himself into the impending Israeli disengagement from Gaza.  Egypt has long sought to play the role of an indispensable intermediary in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations in an effort to keep the Bush administration supportive.  But at the same time, Egypt has permitted the smuggling of increasingly sophisticated weapons into Gaza in order to weaken Israel, which it considers an adversary.  It is no secret that Egypt has the ability to halt the influx of arms into Gaza if it so desired.  But making Israel more secure is not in its interest.  That is why any Israeli disengagement from Gaza which also involves relinquishing control of its borders – land, sea and air – would be fraught with disastrous consequences for Israel.

 With more than 200 F-16s, an impressive fleet, and soon to have 1,000 M-1 tanks, Egypt remains a serious conventional threat to Israel while facing no other regional adversaries.  Mubarak needs to keep his military happy, and to keep his growing and economically deprived population as well as the Muslim Brotherhood under control.  At the very least he views Israel as a regional rival, and he has so far managed to convince American policy-makers that he provides stability.  It is about time, however, that the U.S. consider the longer-term ramifications of relying on a despot who has been in power for too long, and begin to give more tangible encouragement to Egypt’s nascent democratic movement.  

 Another recent visitor to the Jewish state was Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Islamist AK Party.  On a positive note, this visit took place as another defense agreement between the two countries was concluded, this time for the purchase of Israeli UAVs.  And unlike Egypt, Turkey can still lay claim to being a democracy.  But there is reason to be concerned as to Turkey’s future adherence to the Kemalist principles of secularism and tolerance.  Turkey today is wrestling with the problem of whether to continue to seek membership in the European Union despite chafing under the obligations joining entails.  At the same time the Erdogan government has been moving to cement ties with both Damascus and Tehran, thus demonstrating its nervousness over the emergence of the Kurds as a political force in the new Iraq.  

Ankara, too, has announced it wants to play a larger role in the Middle East “peace process”.  Like Putin, Erdogan also offered to help train and equip the PA security forces.  And like Putin, the key fact that Abbas announced he will never use force against the terrorists has been conveniently overlooked.  As long as the Palestinian leadership views terrorists as legitimate “resistance” fighters and permits them to keep their arms, providing additional weapons will not lead to peace.  The same medieval philosopher who warned about not being able to distinguish between friend and foe, could well have supplied the corollary that a leopard does not change its spots.