The Democratic takeover of both the House and the Senate will undoubtedly have ramifications for US-Israel relations the next two years. While surprises can always happen in Washington, some observations at this early point could be relevant.
In the House, much will depend on whether a moderate wing, reinforced by a number of relatively conservative newcomers, can halt the leftward drift of the party in recent years. The Majority Leader race between Jack Murtha, with his call for an immediate pullout from Iraq, and the current Whip, Steny Hoyer should reveal a great deal about the future direction of House Democrats. With his rallying fellow Dems to back pro-Israel initiatives and centrist approach, Hoyer offers a stark contrast to Murtha and his supporters. Murtha’s own military experience and role on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee gained him a pro-defense reputation in the past. Energized, however, by the publicity and adulation he received from the anti-war forces for his calls to abandon Iraq, Murtha has changed his behind-the-scenes profile and is now seeking a leadership spot. The soon-to-be Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has cultivated some ties with Jewish groups, but will not be as directly involved in legislative activities and initiatives affecting Israel, though she will obviously play a key role in general. What is worrisome is that some fringe Jewish groups and wealthy liberal supporters whose views on Israel and national defense can (charitably) be described as “dovish” will have greater influence on a Democratically controlled Congress.
A number of very senior Democrats who will be chairing major House committees rank in the bottom 10% of the class (of 435) when it comes to Israel-related issues. They are:
- David Obey (Appropriations)
- John Conyers (Judiciary)
- John Dingell (Energy and Commerce)
- George Miller (Education and Work Force)
- Nick Rahall (Resources)
In
fact, all five voted recently against the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act,
which passed 361 to 37. While
wielding influence on the party and attracting media attention, hopefully they
will be more engaged with domestic issues rather than those affecting foreign
policy in the Middle East.
On the positive side, Tom Lantos is in line to take over as chair of the House International Relations Committee. Israel has no stronger, effective, committed supporter in Congress who also works well with his GOP colleagues. The new chair of the Foreign Operations Appropriation Committee will be Nita Lowey, which should be regarded as a plus. If Murtha moves on to a leadership position, Norm Dicks would chair the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. Dicks is a friend of both the defense and pro-Israel communities. Based on his record, Ike Skelton, who is in line to be chair of the Armed Services Committee, should present few problems.
With regard to the Senate, Joe Lieberman’s very impressive win over Ned Lamont with his anti-war single-issue campaign was the best news on election night for both Israel and America’s future security. Less momentous, but noteworthy, was the defeat in Rhode Island of (nominally) Republican Lincoln Chafee, who chairs the Near East Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Following in his late father’s tradition, Chafee was an unrelenting critic of Israel, and single-handedly was able to derail John Bolton’s appointment as U.N. ambassador.
On
the negative side of the ledger, four staunch Senate supporters of Israel lost their re-election contests -
Rick Santorum (PA), Mike DeWine (OH), Jim Talent (MO) - and George Allen (VA).
Allen's replacement, Jim Webb has recently advocated a "regional
approach" in the Middle East. This
is a cause for concern because it would invariably mean putting pressure on
Israel for further concessions in order to placate our Arab “allies”.
Santorum was the leader in the Senate in seeking regime change in Iran
and thwarting its nuclear ambitions.
With a Democratic Senate majority, Joe Biden (who is running for President in '08) will take over the helm of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. While he could be considered as a better choice than Dick Lugar, whom he will replace, Biden can be erratic at times and go off on his own foreign policy tangents. Patrick Leahy, who will chair the Judiciary Committee, is also in line to chair the Foreign Operations Subcommittee of Appropriations. As a frequent critic of Israel he has supported few positive initiatives. Robert Byrd, with the worst Israel-related record in the Senate, will chair the full Appropriations Committee. Hopefully, Byrd will not interject himself in specific defense appropriations issues affecting Israel where Dan Inouye will be in charge, working well with his GOP counterpart, Ted Stevens, both very much in tune with the pro-Israel community. Carl Levin will replace John Warner as chair of the Armed Services Committee - a net plus on Israel-related issues.
The new 110th Congress will undoubtedly seek to have a say in future U.S. actions in Iraq, with the outcome there bearing directly on the future of the entire region. Here Iran’s role will be of paramount importance, with signs now pointing ominously to a policy of accommodation with the mullahs – and their nuclear ambitions. The challenge will be for a lame duck Republican administration to be able to work with a Democratic Congress to devise a strategy that secures our country’s vital interests in the Middle East, while ensuring Israel’s security. If you add to this formidable task, the intense political preparations for the 2008 Presidential election, the increasingly negative trends in Latin America, North Korean nukes, Russia’s slide toward autocracy, the growing power of China – and, incidentally, the worldwide Islamofascist terrorist threat – we have a helluva year shaping up!