Number 5 Summer 2006

WASHINGTON PAC NEWSLETTER

Number 5 - Summer 2006

2006 U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS UPDATE

* Denotes Washington PAC support in current or last election cycle

Arizona

*Jon Kyl (R) Elected 1994. 2000 Winning Percentage 79%

A staunch, consistent, and increasingly valuable supporter.

The conservative Kyl is facing a strong, largely self-funded, challenge from former Arizona Dem Party Chair Jim Pederson. Last quarter, Pederson, a shopping mall developer, donated $1.7M to his campaign ($3.7M so far) and outspent Kyl by $1.2M. Pederson has halved Kyl’s early poll leads and he will have popular Dem. Gov. Jane Napolitano at the top of the Dem ticket. However, he still trailed Kyl 52% to 40% in a July poll, and the veteran campaigner Kyl is well-positioned for the stretch run. He has a $7.1M to $1.7M cash advantage, full support from his popular AZ Senate colleague, John McCain, and Kyl’s tough views on illegal immigration -- half of all illegals come through Arizona -- are well-received in this Red state. This race will be contested to the end, but it’s difficult to see how Kyl loses.

California

*Dianne Feinstein (D) Elected 1992. 2000 Winning Percentage 56%

Appropriations (Defense), Intelligence.

A supportive record, but some statements have been a cause for concern.

A serious challenge to the popular, moderate Feinstein was an unaffordable luxury for the GOP this year. Going bargain basement instead, the GOP nominee is 74 year-old, ultra-conservative former state Senator Richard Mountjoy. A no-exception abortion opponent, Mountjoy has only $20K on hand while Feinstein has $8M and he trails in polls by a 2 to 1 margin. Game over.

Connecticut

*Joe Lieberman (D) Elected 1988. 2000 Winning Percentage 63%

Armed Services.

One of our most respected and important friends in the Senate.

A no-brainer Lieberman re-election has transformed into a seminal political event that is threatening to rupture the Democratic Party. Left-wing blogger driven outrage over Lieberman’s mainstream stance on Iraq has now mushroomed into a situation where previously unknown Greenwich millionaire Ned Lamont, who has self-funded $2.5M, is favored to beat the former Dem. VP nominee in the August 8 primary. Lieberman is going all out to win the primary, but is set to make an Independent run. Adding more drama, the sole Republican who filed to run, ex-state Rep. Alan Schlesinger, could be exiting due to gambling issues (which would give the GOP the opportunity to appoint a stronger three-way race contender). In a three-way race there will be so many interesting factors at play --how will Lieberman be treated by Dems, how much will Lamont self-fund, who might the CT GOP appoint to run. Lieberman currently leads in three-way match-ups but Lamont is gaining. This race is huge, stay tuned.

DElaware

*Thomas Carper (D) Elected 2000. 2000 Winning Percentage 55%

A usually dependable supporter.

Carper, a former Gov, Rep, and state Treasurer, is 11-0 in statewide elections and will be 12-0. The GOP endorsed and expected nominee is conservative law professor/ex-Bush 41 immigration official, Jan Ting. The son of Chinese immigrants, Ting is running on a get-tough immigration platform but getting no traction nor money. The popular well-funded Carper is incredibly safe.

Once, the GOP considered Nelson’s seat a real takeover opportunity, now the GOP is just trying to avoid an embarrassing loss in November. From the outset, the GOP feared that Rep. Katherine Harris (good record) while popular with partisans, was too polarizing and unpolished to beat Nelson. But even as she was battered by scandals and campaign turmoil no serious alternative could be convinced to run. Now, after emergency surgery, another mass campaign staff walk-out, and the possibility of a DOJ probe into her relationship with a lobbyist, even she did drop out, the only other GOP candidates in the race are little known political neophytes. They are LeRoy Collins Jr., (son of ex-Gov/retired Admiral), Will McBride (attorney) and Pete Monroe (developer). Harris still is the clear primary favorite, but in general election match-ups, Nelson absolutely demolishes her. In two June polls Nelson led Harris 61% to 26% and 59% to 26%. He also holds a $12.6M to $2.6M cash advantage. In a match-up with Collins, Nelson led 65% to 13%. Not much sunshine for the GOP in the Sunshine State this November.

While not as bad as Joe Lieberman, Akaka is also facing a serious primary challenge. In a surprise move, moderate two-term Dem Rep. Ed Case (good record) decided to run on the basis that Hawaii, with two 81 year-old Senators, needs to start transitioning to the future now. Case believes Akaka, who Time magazine named one of the five worst Senators and pales in comparison to his Senate partner Daniel Inouye, is the octogenarian who should go. The Dem leadership strongly disagrees and is solidly behind Akaka, and last quarter Akaka outraised Case $785K to 250K. However, Case and his new blood argument both have appeal, and in a July poll Akaka was only up 51% to 40%. With a late primary and the calls for a candidate debate growing (Akaka has refused so far) Case has a legitimate shot. For the GOP, 72 year-old ex-Navy captain/motivational speaker Jerry Coffee (a POW in Vietnam for seven years) is the likely nominee, but the GOP has no shot. If Akaka plays it close to the vest, he will be back next year.

Lugar, a fifth generation Hoosier, is already the longest serving Senator in Indiana history and so popular that the Democrats are not even fielding a candidate. A Libertarian is his only opposition. It doesn’t get much safer.

While Maine voters vehemently disapprove of Pres. Bush, they feel the exact opposite about independent-minded moderate Snowe, as well as her GOP Senate colleague Susan Collins. This Fall, Snowe faces Dem Jean Hay Bright (’96 candidate/organic farmer) who has $120 on hand. In a June poll Snowe led 66% to 26% and victory is assured.

While Maryland is very Democratic (2 to 1 registration advantage), the road to retaining Sarbane’s seat could be a rough one. The GOP has a superb candidate in African-American Lt. Governor Michael Steele. Steele is a good campaigner, has more money ($3M on hand) than the top Dems, and appeals to traditionally Dem African American voters. Meanwhile, the Dems are embroiled in a closely contested primary with racial undertones between ten-term Rep. Ben Cardin (fine record) and ex-Rep/NAACP head Kwesi Mfume. The mild-mannered Cardin is the establishment choice who polls better against Steele and is way ahead in money ($2.3M on hand versus $171K). However, in recent months the charismatic Mfume has made strong gains and pulled virtually even in primary polls. A big late blitz should put Cardin over the top, but a wild card is candidate Josh Rales, a wealthy businessman who despite having little chance has already dumped $1.3M into his run and hurts Cardin. If Cardin wins the late Sept. primary, Mfume must get on board or African-American voters could sit it out or vote for Steele. However, it will be made clear in the general by Dems that the conservative Steele is no moderate. In a July poll, Cardin beat Steele 47% to 36% and Mfume beat Steele 42% to 40%. Steele has a shot, especially against Mfume, but he will need everything to break his way, which is not likely. The PAC is supporting Cardin based on his House record.

The liberal lion Kennedy will easily win an eighth full term, and with $8.7M on hand and in good health, he is well-positioned to go for the Senate service record with a ninth term six years from now in 2012. The Massachusetts legend faces minor GOP opposition in the person of 44 year-old ex-campaign volunteer/foreign language school director Ken Chase (who has the state GOP endorsement) and 42 year-old ex-Selectman/businessman Kevin Scott.

MICHIGAN

Although all of Stabenow’s numbers (approval, re-elect, and poll results) are in the 40’s and low 50’s indicating vulnerability, upon closer examination, she is looking good. In August, the GOP will choose between Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and African American ex-Detroit councilman/Reverend Keith Butler who are engaged in a hotly contested resource draining primary. Bouchard is the favorite, but his win could alienate Butler supporters in the general. Regardless, in a July poll, both GOP candidates trailed Stabenow badly. Stabenow topped Bouchard 50% to 29%, and Butler 52% to 25%. Also, in May the liberal Stabenow was one of just four Dems to vote against the “amnesty granting” Senate immigration bill, a smart move in a state with high unemployment. Most importantly, Stabenow has $7M on hand while the GOP candidates each have around $1M.

The open seat race to replace Dayton is one of two serious GOP pick-up opportunities. GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy (fine record) has been running hard since before Dayton unexpectedly bowed out and is proving to be a very strong contender. On the Dem side, the field has finally been cleared for Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, and she has maintained a slight lead over Kennedy in the polls. While a (hotly disputed) July poll gave Klobuchar a 50% to 31% lead, one two weeks earlier had her up only 47% to 44% more in line with previous polls. With Pres. Bush’s direct support Kennedy has lead Klobuchar in funding ($4M to $3.5M) but the unpopularity of both Bush and the Iraq war in Minnesota could be fatal to Kennedy, and he is trying to distinguish himself from the President (voting support for Bush down from 97% to 87%). Despite the race being close, it really has not heated up yet (Klobuchar just started TV ads) but it will very soon. Klobuchar will have all the resources she needs, and Kennedy should stay very close, but it looks like it will take a serious slip-up by Klobuchar for the Dems not to retain this Blue State seat.

Lott went from talking about retirement after his house was wiped out by Katrina to now talking about getting back into the GOP Senate leadership next Congress. One thing is certain, he will be back, as the lightly regarded Dem. nominee, African American state Rep./abstinence educator Erik Fleming has no chance of winning.

Talent is locked in perhaps the closest Senate race of the cycle against Dem state Auditor Claire McCaskill. Since last Fall, each has lead by a few points in the polls, and a mid-July poll had them even at 42%. Missouri has been trending GOP since 2000 and McCaskill lost a close Governor’s race in 2004, but the political atmosphere this year is favorable to Democrats and McCaskill. First, President Bush’s 36% approval rating is among the lowest of the 2004 states he won. Second, Talent opposes a high-profile heavily funded stem cell ballot initiative that is favored by over 60% of Missourians (as well as a minimum wage increase initiative favored by 66%). Both initiatives could boost Dem turnout. McCaskill lost in ’04 due to a poor performance in rural areas and she is now focusing on these areas. Nonetheless, Talent is a smart campaigner and strong in rural areas, and most significantly, he is well ahead of McCaskill in cash $7.2M to $2.8M. McCaskill could self-fund (she dropped $1.4M in ’04) but Talent will not be outspent. This could be the bellwether race of the cycle and it will attract increasing national attention.

Even though Montana’s political scene is an interesting mix of Red and Blue, at the start of the cycle, only popular Democrat Governor Brian Schweitzer could have had a shot at toppling two-termer Burns. Now though, after revelations of Burns prominent role in the Jack Abramoff scandal, he is fighting for his political life. Burns has the worst approval ratings of any Senator and despite spending $2M last quarter (a record for Montana), he trails the Dem nominee, state Sen. Pres. John Tester in all polls (50% to 43% in a July poll). The previously obscure Tester is rough-edged, clean-cut, plain-speaking organic farmer who crushed a better funded more polished (yet also ethically challenged) candidate in the primary. Tester is proving an attractive alternative and a formidable challenger. Burns will have (more) money to tout his considerable work on behalf of Montana and hit Tester on his relatively liberal social views, but Tester matched Burns in fundraising last quarter, and with strong national support, Tester should have the resources to counter Burns attacks. If Tester can avoid being tied to left and getting caught in any sort of scandal, it’s hard to see how Burns can turn things around. This is a great pick up opportunity for the Dems.

Nelson is defending his seat in one of Reddest states in the Union. Registered Republicans (580K) outnumber Democrats (370K) and Independents (185K) combined, and Bush won by 33 points in 2004. In addition, the GOP nominee, 41 year-old former Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts, can self-fund. However, in a mid-July poll Nelson led Ricketts 57% to 31%, and while the race will tighten, Nelson is looking very strong for several reasons. First, Cornhuskers tend to be populist and independent and not straight ticket voters. Nelson appeals to such voters and he has 79% approval rating while Bush is at 45%. Second, Nelson has been endorsed by many traditionally GOP interest and business groups. Third, while the affable Ricketts is a good candidate, he is a political neophyte and his GOP primary victory was due largely to $5M in self-funding. Fourth, Ricketts is very close to triggering the millionaire’s amendment which increases contribution limits for Nelson (with $2M on hand) and in the past, candidates who have triggered the amendment in the general have never won. While the national GOP and fellow Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (no friend of Nelson whom he beat in 1996) are stressing that a Nelson win could swing the Senate to the Dems, its doubtful that such a partisan rationale will prevail.

In November, Ensign will face ex-Pres. Jimmy Carter’s 58 year-old son Jack Carter. Aside from the famous name, Carter does not make a compelling candidate. An investment consultant who has lived in the state less than four years, Carter has never held public office and his Navy service was marred by a dismissal for drug use. While Bush’s approval rating in Nevada is lower than any other state he won in 2004, Ensign is in good shape. In a May poll, Ensign led 52% to 32% and leads $3.3M to $420K in cash. There is little hope Carter can pull off an upset.

Former Rep. now Senator Bob Menendez (very good record) is filling out Corzine’s term and locked in tight battle with GOP state Senator Thomas Kean Jr. to win a full term in November. The 37 year-old Kean, the son of popular eponymous Governor, is a pro-choice moderate with a clean record who is trying to cast the veteran Menendez as an ethically-challenged machine politician. While Kean does not have baggage like Menendez, he also does not have Menendez’s campaign savvy, experience and fundraising skills. Kean’s campaign has already made some missteps, and last quarter Menendez out raised Kean $2.6M ($7.4M on hand) to $1.1M ($2.3M on hand), a disappointing showing for Kean in a very expensive state. Kean is also being hurt by the unpopularity of Bush and current Iraq policy but Menendez could be hurt by Governor Corzine’s unpopular budget and tax moves. The two have traded leads in polls with Menendez on top in the two latest polls and gaining momentum. However, almost all polls have been within the margin of error, and there is a fair amount of undecided and Independent voters. This race will get very intense and negative. Neither candidate is that well-known statewide and Menendez’s resource advantage could be key. This race is a GOP pick-up opportunity but no GOP Senator has been elected in the Garden State since 1972 and Kean has to step it up. The PAC is supporting Menendez based on his House record.

NEW MEXICO

In the beginning, Bingaman was a top GOP target (Bush won NM in ’04) but now he is absolutely safe. The GOP nominee is urologist Allen McCulloch, a political neophyte with only $3K compared to Bingaman’s $1.8M.

While Clinton’s 2008 Presidential momentum has slowed, this race has had nothing to do with it. As if the embarrassing cut and run by the hand-picked GOP candidate, Westchester D.A. Jeanine Pirro, was not bad enough, Republicans now are experiencing a very divisive primary between two political lightweights. In the right corner is conservative ex-Yonkers Mayor John Spencer an ethically challenged, yet wily bomb-thrower. In the left corner is ex-Pentagon spokesperson Kathleen Troia McFarland a moderate pro-choice political newcomer who has national appeal but no campaign and elected office experience. Regardless of who is chosen by the GOP in September (Spencer leads in primary polls but undecided is at almost 50%) Clinton beat both Spencer and McFarland by around 30 points each in a July poll. The one thing that Clinton, with $22M in the bank and counting, does not have to worry about these days is her Senate re-election.

North Dakota is a very red state and national GOP was chagrined that Conrad was given a pass by Gov. John Hoeven and other lesser but still strong GOP possibilities. Perhaps it was because the hard-working moderate Conrad, a fifth generation North Dakotan, is an excellent campaigner with $3.5M on hand and an approval rating of 75%. His GOP opponent this Fall will be 39 year-old town councilman Dwight Grotberg. Grotberg has a classic Midwestern profile (farmer with seven kids) but also no experience, no money and no chance.

DeWine is a thoughtful “Gang of 14” moderate Republican who has cross-party appeal. However, he is in serious trouble as Democrats are taking advantage of GOP malaise in Ohio caused by the scandals of his fellow Buckeye Republicans Gov. Bob Taft and Rep. Bob Ney and dissatisfaction with President Bush. The Democrats also have an experienced, well-funded nominee in Rep. Sherrod Brown (fair record). Brown is a strong candidate and campaigner but he also has a very liberal voting record that will not play well in many areas of this Red-trending state. DeWine, with a $6.6M to $3.8M cash advantage, will try to keep the race about issues such as national security and the candidates positions and avoid getting swept up in an anti-GOP tide. He must also shore up the conservative base which he has angered in the past. The two have traded poll leads in recent months and Brown should benefit from an open Governor’s race at the top of ticket where currently the Dem nominee is well out in front of the GOP nominee. This race is heating up considerably and expect record spending and lots of national attention. Dems are definitely thinking pick-up but so far this race does not appear to be a top-tier takeover opportunity like Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island.

An increasingly important supporter with an almost perfect record of support.

Since day one, Santorum has been public enemy number one for the Dems. In a state where Dems outnumber Republicans and Kerry won, defeating one of the most outspoken Senate conservatives has been a mission. With the chance of retaking the Senate, Dems are so on mission that even when the expected Dem nominee, state Treasurer Bob Casey, a pro-lifer to begin with came out in support of Alito, pro-choice groups just shook it off. Casey is the son of a popular former Governor and has won statewide before and Dems seemed to have made a good choice. He has led Santorum consistently in the polls by 10 points or more, and was up in a June poll 52% to 37%. While Santorum’s poll numbers are the worse for any incumbent this cycle, his fundraising numbers are among the best ($3.6M last quarter and $9.5M on hand). Casey though is not far behind $2.7M/$5.2M, Santorum has the resources and tenacity for an all out assault in the final months and his moderate fellow Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is also being of help. This race will break all state spending records and should get (even more) negative. So far the Casey coalition is holding and this seat is looking like a Democratic takeover.

While the independent-minded Chafee opposed the war in Iraq and Justice Alito, and did not vote for the President in 2004, the national GOP is backing him to the hilt. In a state where Kerry won by 21 points and Bush has a nation leading 75% disapproval rating its clear he is their only hope to retain the seat. Not all GOP’ers are willing to hold their nose though, and conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey is waging a well-funded well-organized Club for Growth supported challenge that has Chafee reaching out to Dems and Indys for primary support. While this may help for the primary, in the general election against the Dem nominee ex-AG/’02 Gov nominee Sheldon Whitehouse Chafee is in trouble. In June, Whitehouse erased earlier Chafee poll leads and in a July poll he led 46% to 41%. Chafee, like his late Senator father, has cross-over appeal, but in a year in which Dems have a chance to take control of the Senate, it could be very hard to get past the (R) after his name. Whitehouse is also running a good campaign and led Chafee in fundraising last quarter $1M to 720K and cash on hand $1.8M to $1M. There is a very good chance that Chafee, a former horse shoer, could be heading back to the stable next year. The PAC supported Laffey.

In the race to fill Frist’s open seat, the August 3^rd primary cannot come soon enough for the GOP. A negative resource draining three way contest between former Chattanooga Mayor/’94 candidate Bob Corker, former Rep/’02 candidate Ed Bryant, and former Rep./’02 Gov nominee Van Hilleary is providing ammunition to the Democrats. Corker is being painted as a faux conservative, but his superior fundraising ($6.6M to $2M each for Bryant and Hillerary) seems to be the difference. Corker led by double digits in two July primary polls but with a fair amount of undecided voters (around 30%) he recently self-funded $1.7M for a final push. Meanwhile, Dem. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (good record) is canvassing the state, raising money ($1.8M last quarter) and effectively using national issue ads to deflect the “liberal” label. The moderate Corker with his big checkbook poses the most trouble for Ford. In a July poll Corker beat Ford 42% to 37%, while Ford was tied with Bryant and Hillerary. Whomever the GOP nominee, the party has won nine straight open Southern Senate seats and is the slight favorite (especially with Corker). However, given the national scene this year and Ford’s determination and fundraising prowess, this seat could be the magical sixth takeover for the Democrats. The PAC is supporting Ford based on his House record.

Hutchison is facing a spirited challenge from Dem nominee Barbara Ann Radnofsky a 50 year-old Houston attorney/mediator and political first-timer. However, Radnofsky’s spunk and her $340K on hand is no match for Hutchison’s 62% approval rating and $9.3M on hand. In a July poll Hutchison, with virtually no campaigning, was up 53% to 34%, and with all eyes focused on the race for Governor and Tom Delay’s seat this race will be a yawner.

UTAH

The musically inclined Hatch wrote over 300 songs the last decade and in 2005 earned $40K in royalties. This Fall he can continue to pen lyrics with little opposition coming from Democrat Pete Ashdown. A 39 year-old Internet executive with no political experience, Ashdown is allegedly pioneering ways to use the Internet to campaign, but with little success. In a June poll Hatch was up 67% to 23% and has a huge cash advantage and will be back.

The race to succeed Jeffords between Independent eight-term Rep. Bernie Sanders (poor record) and expected GOP nominee Richard Tarrant has been very active and already broken state spending records. Tarrant, a medical software company founder has self-funded $4.4M forcing Sanders to hit the phones ($1M last quarter). Also unprecedented, Sanders agreed to be on the Dem primary ballot so after he wins the primary, he can decline that nomination, and then just Independent Sanders and Republican Tarrant will be on the general election ballot. Nonetheless, it is highly doubtful that Vermonters can be swayed by Tarrant’s money, and in a June poll Sanders beat Tarrant 67% to 29%. It a lock that Congress’ only avowedly socialist member will take a Senate seat.

Allen will need to scale back his 2008 presidential plans, as all hands on deck could be needed to repel a strong challenge from his Dem opponent ex-Reagan Navy Secretary James Webb. Webb, a decorated Vietnam vet who switched parties a few years ago partly because of Iraq, showed considerable potential in winning the Dem primary and is an attractive candidate. The combat boot wearing Webb is making Allen’s support for permanent American bases in Iraq (and his lack of military service) plus Allen’s opposition to stem cell research central campaign themes. Allen is going after Webb’s Hollywood support and his unfamiliarity with local issues affecting Virginians. Money will be key and after a resource draining primary Webb had only $425K on hand compared to Allen’s $6.6M. While Allen would like to conserve for 2008, he spent $2.4M last quarter and will spend what it takes to win. His approval ratings are also only in the low 50’s. A June Webb poll had Allen up 46% to 39% while an Indy poll had it at 51% to 41% and another 56% to 39%. Webb can expect considerable national support and the election of Dem. Gov. Tim Kaine in ’04 (who has a 67% approval rating) showed that Dems can do well in ex-urban counties. This race will garner national attention and could be competitive.

Not particularly involved in our issues, but a fine record. (She does not accept PAC contributions).

The 47 year-old freshman Cantwell who defeated incumbent Slade Gorton by less than 2500 votes in 2000 is facing an increasingly difficult race in her bid for a second term. The Republican candidate Mike McGavick, a 48 year-old former insurance company executive who used to work for Gorton, is proving to be a star recruit, and is running a well-funded ($5M spent so far) effective campaign. A lot of Cantwell’s trouble though is coming from her left due to her support for the Iraq war. In July, she voted for a Senate resolution setting a date to start troop withdrawal and was able to convince one anti-war Dem candidate to drop out of the race and join her staff (at a nice salary), but the fear is still that some Dems (also angry that she did not support an Alito filibuster) will simply not vote or vote for anti-war Independent Aaron Dixon in November. McGavick meanwhile has maximum support from his party including top GOP Senators, and in two June polls Cantwell’s once double digit lead shrunk to 47% to 43% and 44% to 40%. Nonetheless, while recent Gubernatorial, Presidential and Senate races in the Evergreen State have been closely decided, Republicans have not won one since 1994, and Bush’s 35% approval rating will not help. Cantwell also has a sizable $6.4M to $1M cash advantage. McGavick, can self-fund and this race could be very close and may come down to whether ultra-liberal Dems help elect a Republican.

The 88 year-old Byrd, who in June became the longest serving Senator in history, will face ’84 Sen./’88 Gov candidate John Raese in November. Raese, an industrialist, can self-fund ($1.4M so far), and he is mounting an aggressive campaign. However, West Virginians have little reason to abandon Byrd, a Mountain State legend and the “King of Pork.” Byrd led Raese 59% to 30% in a June poll and his approval ratings are near 70%. Only a major slip-up by Byrd could make this race competitive.

Kohl has an undistinguished Senate record and several Wisconsin Republicans (notably ex-Gov Tommy Thompson) could have given Kohl a run for his considerable money. Instead, with the filing deadline passed, Kohl has a cakewalk. His GOP opponent will be ’02 Sec. of State nominee/’04 candidate/attorney Robert Lorge. Kohl beat Lorge 60% to 27% in a July poll and Kohl, a retail mogul who almost 100% self-funds ($4.8M so far) will be able to save some money this year.

Thomas will square off against Dem. Dale Groutage. If this was a science meet, Groutage, with a B.S. Masters, and PH.D in science and 34 years as a military research scientist would be the prohibitive favorite. However, it’s a political election, and Thomas, with a 30 point lead in a July poll and a $1M to $8K advantage will easily win.