WASHINGTON
PAC
2008
U.S.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Number
3, Spring 2008
OVERVIEW
In
2006, Democrats took six GOP seats to gain a 51-49 Senate majority. This Fall,
it now looks as though Dems could take three to five more. The GOP has 23 seats
to defend (including 2 out of cycle special elections) compared to 12 for the
Dems. More so, five GOP seats are open seat races due to retirements and
overall in candidate recruiting the Dems are winning hands down. In the
open seat races -- Allard (CO), Warner (VA), Hagel (NE), Domenici (NM) and Craig
(ID) -- top Dem recruits (two Congressmen and a former Gov respectively) have
made CO, NM, and especially VA excellent pick-up opportunities. There are
also four GOP Senators running in states where Kerry won in 2004; Sununu (NH),
Coleman (MN), Collins (ME), Smith (OR). All face tough races, and with
another former Dem. Gov. recruited in NH, Sununu is in peril. Conversely, of the
six Dems running in states Bush won in 2004, only Landrieu (LA) is in any danger
while the other five Red State Dems, to a large degree because of GOP recruiting
failures (most significantly in
South Dakota
) are considered safe for re-election. Finally, a usually safe GOP
incumbent (Stevens in
Alaska
) could be in danger because of non-electoral issues and a resulting top-tier
Dem challenge. The national political climate and the presidential race should
also impact some of the races -- but which way? Increased voter focus on
the economy and less on the war in
Iraq
should help GOP incumbents, especially in Blue States. McCain is also
expected to attract “Reagan Democrats” and Independents which could help.
On the other hand, in some Blue States (MN, OR) and even Red States (MS,
LA) Obama
at the top of the ticket could increase Dem turnout and help down-ballot.
The DSCC also has a $33M to $15M cash advantage (end of Feb) which will enable
massive Dem cash infusions into tight races. No doubt Dems will make gains
in the Senate this Fall, and the races in NH, NM, CO, MN, LA should be the most
competitive.
*
Denotes the PAC’s support in current or previous election cycle ** Maximum
support
ALABAMA
jEFF
sESSIONS (R) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 59%
Armed
Services
Overall,
a fine record of support.
Sessions,
a
former state AG with a 60% approval rating and a $4M warchest, is very safe. Top
Yellowhammer State Dems passed early on the race leaving African American state
Sen. Vivian Davis. While big on “change”,
Davis
is little on cash, recognition, or any chance of winning.
ALASKA
**TED
STEVENS (R)
Appointed 1968. 2002 Winning Percentage 78%
Appropriations
(Defense Subcommittee Ranking Member)
An
important veteran friend on a vital subcommittee.
Stevens,
the
longest serving Senator in GOP history, is facing the toughest race of his
political career. Last year, Stevens’ home was raided by the IRS/FBI as part
of an ongoing federal public corruption investigation in
Alaska
that has already ensnared several GOP politicians, including Steven’s son
Ben, and has imperiled long-term GOP Rep. Don Young. Smelling blood,
Dems have recruited a top-tier challenger in 45 year old two-term Anchorage
Mayor Mark Begich. Begich, whose father Rep. Nick Begich died in a 1972
plane crash along with then House Maj. Leader Hale Boggs, has name recognition,
will be well funded and receive considerable national support. Polls show
Stevens is vulnerable, but his legendary ability to provide for the state is not
lost on Alaskans who also vote solidly GOP in statewide elections (all major
office holders are GOP and Kerry got only 36% in ’04). This race will be
competitive, but unless Stevens’ legal troubles get noticeably worse, it is
unlikely Alaskans will turn a cold shoulder to “Uncle Ted.”
arkansas
MARK
PRYOR (D) Elected
2002. 20002 Winning Percentage 54%
Armed
Services
An
excellent record of support with Iran-related issues the exception.
While
a southern freshman Democratic Senator should be top targets for the GOP, Pryor
is exactly the opposite. No GOP’er filed to run by the March deadline and thus
Pryor, a former state AG, will run unopposed this November.
colorado
(OPEN)
wayne
allard (R) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 51%
A
down the line supporter who will be missed.
Even
before Allard decided
to retire, the
Centennial
State
was seen as a top pick-up opportunity for Dems who since 2004 have captured the
other Senate seat and the Governorship. It will not be easy though and
this race is shaping up to be one of the hardest fought of the cycle. The
Dem nominee will be five-term Rep. Mark Udall (good record), son of legendary AZ
Congressman Mo Udall. The GOP nominee will be former Rep/Bd. of Ed member
Bob Schaffer (fair/good record). A March poll had Udall up 46% to 43%, but
a Feb poll had Schaffer up 44% to 43% and their favorable/unfavorable numbers
are almost identical. Dems contend Schaffer’s ultra-conservative voting record
(scored as the 14th most conservative in Congress since 1937) is out
of tune with the changing political environment. The GOP counters that “
Boulder
liberal” Udall (whose voting record has been scored to the left of Clinton
and Obama) is far less moderate than Dems who have won statewide recently. Both
are good campaigners, and who can better portray themselves as “mainstream”
will be key. Schaffer benefits from a 138,000 GOP voter registration
advantage and the presence of a Green party candidate who could take around 2%
of the vote. Nonetheless, Udall with a $3.6M to $1.6M cash advantage and
significant national support has polled better with all important unaffiliated
voters, and is regarded as the favorite. A key issue could be the Dem.
presidential nominee as a March poll of
Colorado
voters had Obama up on McCain 50% to 41% and
Clinton
down 48% to 42%.
Delaware
joseph
r. biden jr (D) Elected
1972. 2002 Winning Percentage 58%
Foreign
Relations (Chairman)
In
a vital position – fine on aid issues but less so on other initiatives.
Biden
who
ended his
presidential run after a distant fifth place finish in the Iowa Caucus, is
virtually certain to be re-elected to a seventh Senate term this Fall. No
serious GOP opposition is on the horizon (so far there is actually no opposition
at all) and in this very blue state the GOP has little chance against Biden.
Biden, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has spent over
half his life as a U.S. Senator.
Georgia
*saXby
chambliss (R) Elected
2002. 2002 Winning Percentage 53%
Armed
Services, Intelligence
An
almost perfect record of support.
Dems
would love to pay Chambliss back
for his hard hitting win over then Sen. Max Cleland into 2002, but the
conservative freshman is looking strong for a second term in the
Red-leaning
Peach
State
. For the Dems, former long-time state Rep Jim Martin, a recent entrant to the
race, is the most credible challenger. Martin, who had polio as a child
but volunteered for
Vietnam
, lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race, but in doing so far outperformed the Dem’s
gubernatorial nominee. However, Martin first has to get through what could
be a bruising, racially tinged Dem primary against reporter Dale Cardwell and
Dekalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones. Also, in a March poll Martin trailed
Chambliss 51% to 33%. Obama at the top of the ticket (GA is 29% African
American) could help the Dem nominee, but Chambliss has a 57% approval rating, a
massive $5M warchest, and it would probably take a serious “Macaca moment”
on Chambliss’ part to make this race competitive.
idaho
(OPEN)
LARRY
CRAIG (R) Elected
1990. 2002 Winning Percentage 65%
Supportive
in most instances.
Craig’s
stall
from grace should not hamper the GOP from retaining his seat. In Nov., GOP
Lt. Gov. Jim Risch will face former Dem Rep. Larry LaRocco in a rematch of the
2006 Lt. Gov. race won by Risch 58% to 39%. LaRocco seems better
prepared this time, and there’s an Indy candidate, but in this very
Red
State
, Risch will win again.
iLLINOIS
**RICHARD
J. DURBIN (D) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 60%
Senate
Majority Whip, Appropriations (Defense, State and Foreign Ops Subcommittees)
In
a leadership position, on two vital panels, and with a perfect record of
support.
The
popular well-respected Durbin
has $8M and a GOP opponent, physician Steve Sauerberg, who is a political
newcomer. An Obama confidant, Durbin can spend most of his time this Fall
campaigning for his fellow IL Senator.
iowa
*tom
harkin (D) Elected
1984. 2002 Winning Percentage 54%
Appropriations
(Defense, State and Foreign Ops Subcommittees)
A
veteran supporter on two vital panels.
In
his previous four Senate races, Harkin beat
an incumbent GOP Senator and then fended off three consecutive sitting GOP
Congressmen. In stark contrast this year, with the filing deadline over,
Harkin will face either former state Rep. George Eichhorn, businessman Steve
Rathje, or Navy veteran Christopher Reed. Bet the farm on Harkin.
KANSAS
*PAT
ROBERTS (R)
Elected 1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 83%
A
fairly good record of support.
Dems
scored some big victories in
Kansas
in 2006, and Roberts
will face a quality Dem opponent in former six-term Rep. Jim Slattery.
However,
Kansas
is a very
Red
State
with 300,000 more GOP’ers than Dems and it has not elected a Dem to the
Senate since 1932. Roberts also has $3M on hand, and while his popularity
(mid-50’s) is not as high as in the past, he can point out that while he has
been representing the state the past 12 years, Slattery, since losing the ’94
Gov. election, has been a D.C. lobbyist. An interesting race to watch, but
Roberts should win handily.
KENTUCKY
**MITCH
McCONNELL (R)
Elected 1984. 2002 Winning Percentage 65%
Senate
Minority Leader, Appropriations (State and Foreign Ops, Defense Subcommittees)
A
key player with a very fine record of support over the years.
Last
year in the
Blue
Grass
State
, the GOP incumbent Governor lost in a landslide and liberal groups already
started airing ads attacking McConnell for
his stewardship in the Senate of some unpopular Bush policies. The Dems
relish the thought of defeating the unabashed GOP Senate Minority Leader, but
the odds are against it. The top Dem potentials passed on the race, and the
back-up Dem establishment choice and expected nominee, failed ‘03/’07 Gov.
candidate Bruce Lunsford, must first deal with a heated primary against
businessman Greg Fischer. While Lunsford has name recognition from his previous
runs and can self-fund, McConnell has over a $7M head start and is a savvy,
relentless campaigner who is reminding Kentuckians of the vast sums of federal
money he has brought to the state. Expect the Dems to pull out all the stops,
but with no help from the top of the ticket in this Red State, it hard to
imagine that McConnell will not be re-elected to a fifth term to become the
longest serving Senator in state history.
LOUISIANA
*MARY
L. LANDRIEU (D)
Elected 1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 52%
Appropriations
(State and Foreign Ops Subcommittee)
An
unblemished record on our issues.
Landrieu’s
seat
is the only real Senate pick up opportunity for the GOP this Fall. In the
Red-leading
Pelican
State
, Bush won 57% in 2004, the GOP controls the other Senate seat and five of seven
House seats, and last Fall GOP Rep. Bobby Jindal easily won the Governorship.
More so, in Landrieu’s previous two election wins,
New Orleans
voters provided the margin of victory, and now with the
Crescent
City
’s population cut almost in half by Katrina, many of these crucial voters are
gone. The GOP has a top candidate in party-switching three-term state Treasurer
John Kennedy. The 56 year old Kennedy has name recognition, statewide
campaign experience and should get a boost from McCain who is well ahead in LA
presidential polls. The GOP is promising a “blood bath” and Kennedy raised
$1.4M last quarter. Landrieu though is up for the fight. She has a $4.5M
to $2M cash advantage, is an effective campaigner, and her brother Mitch is the
Lt. Governor. With her increasing Senate seniority she has worked to send
federal money to the state which has helped her earn endorsements of some state
GOP officials. As the only Senate Dem in trouble, she will also get
considerable national support; especially with Katrina displaced
voters Landrieu is the slight favorite but this race should heat up
considerably and be very close in the end.
MAINE
**SUSAN
M. COLLINS (R)
Elected 1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 58%.
Armed
Services
With
a 100% record of support, a high re-election priority.
GOP
incumbents of all stripes fared poorly in
New England
in 2006, most noticeably anti-war RINO Senator Lincoln Chafee, and the moderate
Collins has been a
top Dem target since Day One. She faces a top tier Dem opponent in
six-term Rep. Tom Allen (undistinguished record) who has $2.5M and considerable
national support. With the state’s blue leanings, Collins is vulnerable, but
her well-established centrist positions (she has the most moderate GOP voting
record in the Senate) have made her popular with Maine’s independent minded
voters (72% favorable rating). Despite months of attacks, Allen has had
little success using Bush and the war – both unpopular – to erode Collins’
strong support, while Collins, with a $4M warchest, has effectively highlighted
Allen’s heavy support from extreme anti-war/liberal groups. In an April
poll, Collin led comfortably 54% to 38%. This race will remain heated but with
Allen underperforming and Collins looking strong, Collins is in good shape at
this point.
Massachusetts
john
kerry (D) Elected
1984. 2002 Winning Percentage 80%
Foreign
Relations
A
consistent record of support.
Two
ex-military officers who unsuccessfully ran for House seats in recent years,
James Ogonowski and Jeff Beatty have signed up to take on Kerry
whose approval rating is below 50%. Ogonowski is seen as the more credible
challenger given his stronger than expected showing in a special House election
race last year. Nonetheless, given the
Bay
State
’s deep blue leanings and Kerry’s $10M warchest, it’s inconceivable that
Kerry will be knocked off.
MICHIGAN
**
CARL LEVIN
(D)
Elected 1978. 2002 Winning Percentage 61%
Armed
Services (Chairman), Intelligence
With
growing influence, an impressive veteran supporter.
The
popular and increasingly influential Levin
will face self-described “long shot” GOP state Rep. Jack
Hoogendyk
this Fall.
With $4M on hand, Levin is one of the safest incumbents of the cycle and a
“sure shot.”
Minnesota
**norm
coleman (R) Elected
2002. 2002 Winning Percentage 50%
Foreign
Relations
An
ardent, valued supporter with a perfect record.
While
Minnesota
has a GOP Governor, the state assembly is majority Dem, all the major statewide
officials are Dems. In 2006, the Dems won what was supposed to be a close open
Senate seat race by a whopping 20 points. With this blue trend, if you
throw in Bush’s 68% disapproval rating and the huge turnout for Obama in the
Dem presidential primary, its obvious Coleman
has one of the toughest seats to defend this cycle. A savvy campaigner,
Coleman, a relative moderate, must distinguish himself from Bush, and with $7M
on hand he is up for challenge. However, the deciding factor in this race is
likely to be the performance of his now certain Dem opponent, comedian/talk show
host Al Franken. The sharp-tongued Franken has never held public office,
but he has been involved in MN Dem. politics for years, and has been effectively
campaigning since early last year. He has proven to be an excellent
fundraiser, outraising and outspending Coleman the last three quarters of 2007
(but has much less on hand), and his success recently forced his main Dem. rival
out of the race. While Franken has kept it together so far, Dems are concerned
that Coleman and the GOP will be able to exploit Franken’s past comments,
Hollywood
background, and inexperience in the general. Also, the economy is now far
more important to Minnesotans than the war in
Iraq
– the Dems’ winning issue in many 2006 races. In a March poll,
Franken pulled to within a statistical dead heat with Coleman (with Coleman up
48% to 46%), and Franken should be helped with Obama at the top of ticket.
This race should be very competitive, colorful, and one of the most watched and
expensive of the cycle.
Mississippi
(TWO ELECTIONS)
THAD
COCHRAN (R) Elected
1978. 2002 Winning Percentage 85%
Appropriations
(Ranking Member)
A
fair record on our issues.
TRENT
LOTT (R) Resigned in December 2007 and was replaced by GOP Rep. Roger Wicker
(fine record)
Cochran
should
easily defeat his Dem. opponent ’06 nominee/ex-state Rep. Erik Fleming in his
race for a sixth term. Interim Senator Wicker
(who served six terms in the House) faces a tougher race against his Dem
opponent, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in the special election to complete the
final five years of Lott’s term. Musgrove is better known than Wicker and
could be helped significantly with Obama at the top of the ticket as Mississippi
is 37% African American (three times the national average), and in Obama’s
primary win turnout was dramatically higher than predicted. Dem polls show
Musgrove within striking distance, but
Mississippi
is still a very Red state and Musgrove, who has some baggage, was voted out of
office in 2003. Wicker will also have close to a year of incumbency under
his belt. This race might force the GOP to spend some scarce resources, but
Wicker should win.
Montana
**max
baucus (D) Elected
1978. 2002 Winning Percentage 63%
A
reliable friend over the years.
Montanans
overwhelming voted for Bush in the last two presidential elections, and John
McCain should win the state this year. Baucus,
however, the longest serving Senator is state history, has
little to fear. A popular anti-tax, pro-gun moderate, Baucus not only has
over $6M on hand, but like fellow popular Dem Gov Brian Schweitzer who is also
up this year, Baucus will face an underfunded second rate GOP opponent. The
filing deadline is over and the “leading” GOP Senate candidate is former
state House Leader Mike Lange who is best known for a 2007 profanity laced
tirade against Gov. Schweitzer that became a YouTube hit and led to his ouster
by his GOP colleagues. Engineer and political neophyte Kirk Bushman is the
“best” of the rest. In 2003, Baucus finished a
50 mile
ultra marathon after a sustaining a serious eye injury at
8 miles
. In this race, he’ll barely break a sweat.
Nebraska
-OPEN
chuck
hagel (R) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 83%
Foreign
Relations, Intelligence.
One
of the worst record on our issues in the Senate, he will not be missed.
The
retirement of outspoken White House critic Hagel
was not a surprise, nor was the subsequent candidacy of
former Gov/Ag. Sec. Mike Johanns. With a potentially nasty GOP primary averted,
Johanns will face the winner of the May Dem. primary between party-switching
businessman Tony Raimondo and ’06 House nominee/rancher Scott Kleeb.
Dems point out that in
2006, in
a very conservative House district open seat race, the 32 year-old Kleeb did
surprisingly well (45%). However, he still lost, and realistically his chances
of winning a statewide race against a popular, very well funded former Gov are
slim. Same for Raimondo. The Dems’ only real hope of defeating
Johanns ended when former Dem. Gov/Sen. Bob Kerrey, who was flirting with a run,
declined to enter the race.
new
hampshire
JOHN
E. SUNUNU (R) Elected
2002. 2002 Winning Percentage 51%
Foreign
Relations
A
dismal record particularly on terrorism issues.
When
Sununu took office
in 2003 after defeating then Dem Governor Jean Shaheen 51% to 47%, Bush had a
70% approval rating, and the GOP held control of the governorship, the state
legislature, and both congressional seats. Now, the Dems control them all, Bush
has a 24% approval, and with Shaheen back for a rematch, Sununu is the most
endangered Senate incumbent. Despite some independence from the Bush
Administration, with that “R” next to his name, it will be hard for him to
escape the anti-Bush, anti-GOP backlash in both the Granite State and the entire
New England region (just ask Lincoln Chafee). More so, he faces the
Dems’ best possible challenger in Shaheen, for whom several well-qualified Dem
ended their candidacies. Sununu does have the fundraising advantage, but
in the polls he is getting beaten consistently by Shaheen. In March,
Shaheen was up 49% to 41%, and 47% to 33%. This race should tighten up and
be hard fought, but it’s not looking good for Sununu.
New
Jersey
**FRANK
LAUTENBERG (D) Elected
1982. 2002 Winning
Percentage 54%
A
veteran lawmaker with solid credentials on our issues.
Lautenberg
will be 90 at the end of his next term and polls show many believe he should
step aside. But with the filing deadline over, the GOP -- having seen a
possibly strong candidate (self-funding moderate Ann Estabrook) drop out in
March for health reasons and subsequent efforts to find another worthy candidate
fail --- has little chance of testing voter unease with Lautenberg.
However, in a surprising and bold move days before the April deadline, nine-term
50 year-old Dem Rep.
Rob Andrews
(very good record) announced a primary challenge (June 3rd). Andrews
previously sought higher office in a hard fought 1997 run for Gov. and he badly
wanted the appointment to the Corzine Senate seat in 2005 which went to Rep. Bob
Menendez. With $3M on hand, and no chance his winning would put the seat
in jeopardy for the Dems, Andrews will go hard at Lautenberg with a message of
“change” and the need for fresh, younger leadership. Andrews has a
strong support in the south but the better known and better funded Lautenberg
($5M) is from the voter rich north and has the support of all the other Dem.
congressional members and the Governor. In a DSCC primary poll Lautenberg was up
52% to 21% and he can also drop millions into the race, but any age-related slip
up could be very damaging. For the GOP, two lightly funded conservatives, state
Sen. Joe Pennachio and professor Murray Sabrin, have been joined by businessman
Andrew Unanue While Unanue could self-fund, he has no political experience and
runs a nightclub -- less than ideal for the GOP. With the State’s
strong blue leanings and the GOP’s weaknesses, Lautenberg should be able to
fight off Andrews and win.
NEW
MEXICO
--OPEN
PETE
DOMENICI (R) Elected
1972. 2002 Winning Percentage 65%
Appropriations
(Defense Subcommittee)
Does
not join in many initiatives but considered friendly.
Domenici’s
decision to pass on a seventh term set in motion two successive heavyweight
match ups involving all three of New Mexico’s House members, with Dem. Rep.
Tom Udall (good record) likely picking up the seat. The first fight, the GOP
primary on June 3rd, pits five-term Rep. Heather Wilson (good record)
against three-term Rep. Steve Pearce (good record).
Wilson
is a moderate who has been able to win in a democratic leaning district, while
Pearce is a rock-ribbed conservative. A Domenici protégé,
Wilson
saw her star fade after almost losing re-election in 2006 and then receiving
flak for her actions related to the firing of a
U.S.
attorney in
New Mexico
. These stumbles by
Wilson
left the door open for the hard charging and self-funding Pearce who been able
to out raise
Wilson
and who won the support of GOP party activists at a pre-nominating convention.
Whoever wins the GOP primary bout will be the underdog in the title fight
against the five-termer Udall. A former state AG, Udall, with a 59%
favorable rating, has better name recognition and more money than his GOP
opponents. The GOP will try to paint Udall as too liberal for this battleground
state that went for Bush in 2004, but in all polling so far Udall has maintained
comfortable leads over both GOP’ers. Udall should remain strong and
receive whatever funding he needs to win.
NORTH
CAROLINA
*ELIZABETH
DOLE (R) Elected
2002. 2002 Winning Percentage 54%
Armed
Services
A
fine record of support.
Dole
started
the cycle appearing vulnerable but no top-tier Tar Heel State Dem wanted to try
and bear this out. Thus, in May Dems will choose between moderate state
Rep. Kay Hagan (the establishment pick) and the more liberal and openly gay
investment banker Jim Neal. Neither Dem has gained much traction
statewide, and the Senate race is being overshadowed by the races for governor
and president. Hagan though is expected to win the primary, and on paper
she is an attractive general candidate for this slightly blue-trending state.
Hagan also impressively raised $820K last quarter. However, while Dole has
work to do with NC voters, she is a proven effective campaigner with $4M on
hand, and historically helped in a presidential year. She should win
comfortably.
OKLAHOMA
**JAMES
M. INHOFE (R)
Elected 1994. 2002 Winning Percentage 57%
Armed
Services
An
increasingly vocal and ardent supporter with a great record.
Dems
have had some success recently in the Red Sooner State and the outspoken Inhofe,
one of the most vilified GOP Senators among Dem
activists, is facing a netroots/environmental group-fueled challenge from 35
year old Dem. state Sen. Andrew Rice. However, while Rice may run a
spirited campaign and get national Dem support, his left of center views are not
likely to appeal to OK voters especially in a presidential election year. Inhofe
also has a $1.8M to $300K cash advantage, and there is little doubt he will be
back next year to further torment the Left.
OREGON
*GORDON
H. SMITH (R) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 56%
An
outstanding record of support.
Smith
is the
only GOP statewide officeholder in the blue-trending
Beaver
State
as well as the only GOP Senator left on the West Coast. He is a top Dem
target, but with all five Dem House members passing on the race, and a bitter
Dem primary underway, the moderate Smith, with $4.5M at the ready, is in
relatively good shape. For the Dems, the establishment got behind state House
Speaker Jeff Merkley, but former DOJ environmental attorney Steve Novick refused
to step aside, and the
4’
9’’ lefty (with a hook for a left hand) is running a hard-hitting effective
campaign against Merkley. Most believe the better funded Merkley will win the
June primary and would be the better general candidate, but Novick has momentum
and was up in a recent primary poll. Whoever emerges to face Smith is
going to be bloodied. Nonetheless, Dems think that with state’s clear
blue shift and Obama at the top of the ticket, Smith can be defeated this Fall.
Smith though is an experienced campaigner who frequently works with the Dems in
the Senate and appeals to the middle and Independents. His favorable rating is
at 57% and he is better known than his Dem opponents. He also has more
money and significant personal resources to call upon if necessary. In a
Feb poll, Smith beat Novick 48% to 35% and Merkley 48% to 30%.
This race should tighten up but the Dem nominee will have a lot of work to do
and probably need unusually high turnout to take out Smith.
RHODE
ISLAND
*
JACK REED
(D) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 78%
Armed
Services, Appropriations (State and Foreign Operations Subcommittee)
A
consistently fine supporter.
In
the deep blue
Ocean
State
, where anti-war liberal Republican Lincoln Chafee was ousted in 2006, Reed
is cruising to re-election. He is very popular, has
$3.1M in the bank, and with no candidate so far the GOP knows this race is not
even remotely winnable. A former Army Ranger and West Pointer, Reed is a leading
Dem voice on
Iraq
.
SOUTH
DAKOTA
*TIM
JOHNSON (D)
Elected 1996. Winning Percentage 50%
Appropriations
(State and Foreign Ops Subcommittee)
A
consistently outstanding record of support.
When
the cycle started, given South Dakota’s clearly red tilt, Johnson’s past
razor thin victories, the 2004 defeat of Dem. Min. Leader Daschle, an expected
big GOP win in the presidential race, and potentially strong GOP opponents Johnson’s
race was on everyone’s “toss up” list. Then in
December 2006, Johnson suffered
a debilitating brain hemorrhage and many thought he would not run for
re-election. Now, however, Johnson is definitely running and with no top GOP
candidates filing before the deadline, he is in relatively great shape. Whether
it was the bipartisan goodwill and empathy that Johnson engendered during his
recovery, his $2.4M warchest, or pre-emptive strikes by the Dems against
possible opponents, the GOP failure to recruit a top tier candidate was a big
missed opportunity for in this incredibly lean year. For the GOP, the choice is
between state Rep. Joel Dykstra, businessman Sam Kephart, and retired
veterinarian Charles Gonyo. Dykstra should win the nomination, but with
only $21K on hand, and little statewide exposure or appeal, he faces a
distinctly uphill battle. Johnson’s race is now on everyone’s
“safe” list.
SOUTH
CAROLINA
LINDSEY
GRAHAM (R)
Elected 2002. Winning Percentage 54%
Armed
Services
A
fine record during his freshman term.
Graham’s
support of immigration reform and early backing of McCain raised the specter of
a serious primary challenge. However, with McCain the presumptive
presidential nominee and immigration on the backburner, the March filing
deadline passed without serious opposition from the right or the left.
Graham will still face a primary and possibly a right-wing Indy challenge, but
neither are real concerns, nor is the expected Dem nominee, attorney Michael
Cone. With his $5M warchest and appeal to the middle, Graham is in very
good shape. .
TENNESSEE
LAMAR
ALEXANDER (R) Elected
2002. 2002 Winning Percentage 54%
Foreign
Relations, Appropriations (State and Foreign Ops Subcommittee)
A
somewhat disappointing record in his first term.
The
Volunteer
State
has a Dem Governor, and in 2006 former Dem Rep. Harold Ford came within 3% of
winning an open Senate seat race. However, this year Dems have little chance of
unseating the popular Alexander. A
former Gov.,Univ. of TN president, Ed Sec, and a seventh
generation Tennessean, Alexander has $3M and 67% approval. For the Dems, ex-TN
Dem. chairman Bob Tuke and ex-Knox
Co.
clerk Mike Padgett are both credible candidates, but neither is well known or
well funded, and both trailed Alexander by almost 30 points in an April poll.
TEXAS
*JOHN
CORNYN (R) Elected
2002. 2002 Winning Percentage 55%
Armed
Services
A
perfect and impressive record of support for this freshman.
The
conservative Cornyn’s poll
numbers are not great and there seems to be Bush fatigue even in
Texas
. On the other hand, Dems are fired up about their nominee, state Rep.
Rick Noreiga, a Texas Army National Guard officer who spent 14 months in
Afghanistan
. Nonetheless, while Cornyn has some work to do with voters, a Dem has not
been elected statewide since 1994, and Noreiga’s support from the outspoken
lefty netroots community may have been a benefit in the primary, but will likely
be a exposed liability in the general, where Cornyn starts with an $8M to
$500K advantage. Expect this race to get heated and Cornyn will come under
fire, but the former state AG and Texas Supreme court judge should be able to
remain cool and win comfortably in this
Red
State
.
VIRGINIA
--OPEN
JOHN
WARNER (R) Elected
1978. 2002 Winning Percentage 83%
Armed
Services, Intelligence
Strong
on foreign aid but mixed record of support on other issues.
With
Warner’s
retirement, Dem pick up opportunity is more like Dem pick up certainty as former
Dem. Gov. Mark Warner is heavily favored to win the open seat election. While
Virginia
has voted GOP in the last 10 presidential elections, Dems have won the last two
major statewide elections (Gov in ’04, Senate in ‘06), and captured the
state Senate last year. Warner, who left office in 2005, is still very popular
and already has $3M for the race. Conversely, the likely GOP nominee Jim
Gilmore, while also a former Governor is neither popular nor well funded ($200K
on hand). Also, although a conservative, he faces a right wing challenge
from state Rep. Bob Marshall. Gilmore is a tough unapologetic campaigner,
but he faces an uphill struggle against Warner. In a March poll, Warner
led Gilmore 55% to 39%, mirroring the results of previous polls. The GOP does
not want to lose a second VA Senate seat in as many years, but with incumbents
in grave danger elsewhere and resources scarce, this race is all but over.
WEST
VIRGINIA
JOHN
D. ROCKEFELLER IV (D) Elected
1984. 2002 Winning Percentage 63%
Intelligence
Usually
in step with our issues.
McCain
will likely win
West Virginia
, but Rockefeller,
like Byrd in 2006, is cruising to an easy re-election. He will have no
problem in a rematch against his 2002 GOP foe, ex-state Sen. Jay Wolfe, whom he
beat by 26 points.
WYOMING
(TWO ELECTIONS)
MICHAEL
B. ENZI (R) Elected
1996. 2002 Winning Percentage 73%
Not
particularly interested in our issues or supportive.
CRAIG
THOMAS (R) (Died in June 2007 and replaced by state Sen. John Barrasso)
In
the conservative
Cowboy
State
, the popular Enzi should
face only token Dem. opposition. The less accomplished interim GOP Sen.
John Barasso (running for the final five years of Thomas’
term) theoretically is more vulnerable, but neither of his
Dem opponents, city councilman Keith Goodenough and attorney Nick Carter, are
seen as real threats, Barasso with $1M on hand is working well with
Enzi in the Senate, and both will win this Fall.