Winter 2012

2012 U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS REVIEW

OVERVIEW

The importance of the November 6 Congressional elections is higher than usual, with control of both Houses of Congress at stake. With a 53-47 advantage in the Senate and 23 Dem seats to defend – as opposed to only 10 on the GOP side – a GOP Senate takeover is not out of the question. At least seven states are currently rated in the toss-up category. Among Senate retirements we make special note of the departures of Senators Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Jon Kyl (R-AZ), and Kent Conrad (D-ND), whose vital contributions on the issue of concern to the PAC will be sorely missed. Over in the House, the current Republican majority of 25 votes could shrink or even disappear with a significant Dem presidential victory. Right now, the best bet is that both parties would retain their majorities, but with slimmer margins. But, it is really too early to make predictions with confidence in a number of hotly contested races, as our Senate Update demonstrates.

For the pro-Israel community, the key Senate race in this election cycle in the Senate is the bid by seven-term Representative Shelley Berkley for the seat currently held by appointee Dean Heller (who succeeded resigning Senator John Ensign). Given Shelley’s service on the Foreign Affairs Committee and her consistent strident support for Israel, we are highlighting this race, just as we did that of Senator Mark Kirk in the previous cycle. (We wish Mark a full and speedy recovery from his stroke last month).

Over in the House, re-districting has produced positive news for us with the retirements from Congress of Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), Jon Olver (D-MA), and Geoff Davis (R-KY) – all, less than enthusiastic supporters. In Ohio, redistricting is pitting two Dems, Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur, against each other – both of whom would not be missed. But re-districting in California unfortunately has two key Dem pro-Israel stalwarts running against each other, with influential former Foreign Affairs Chair Howard Berman facing off against former Terrorism Subcommittee chair Brad Sherman. The loss of either Member is most regrettable. In New Jersey, Dem eight-termer Steve Rothman, who serves on both the Defense and on the Foreign Operation Appropriations Subcommittees also faces a serious primary challenge from a fellow Democrat incumbent because of re-districting, with Rothman’s re-election effort a priority. Among those retiring who will be missed, are veteran GOP Foreign Affairs Committee Members Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Dan Burton (R-IN).

With so much happening now in the Middle East and its surroundings, continued strong Congressional support for a secure Israel as being in the best interests of the United States will be needed more than ever. To date, we have contributed to 8 Senate races and 15 House races for the 2012 election cycle. As our single issue pro-Israel PAC enters its 31^st year of operation, the role we play on Capitol Hill remains more crucial than ever.

A * symbol denotes Washington PAC support in current or previous election cycle.

Arizona – oPEN

*Jon Kyl (R) Elected 1994.  2006 Winning Percentage 53%

Minority Whip

A staunch, consistent, and valuable supporter who will be missed.

AZ has trended fairly conservative in past elections (59% for McCain in 2010, and 53% for Kyl in 2006). Rep. Jeff Flake (good on most Israel-related issues, but horrible on Iran) and businessman Wil Cardon have both announced as GOP candidates, with Flake leading Cardon by a wide margin in the polls. Former Surgeon General (2002-2006) Richard Carmona, and Dem Party chair/attorney Don Bivens have announced, with Carmona raising money and in the lead. Seat should remain in GOP hands.

California

Dianne Feinstein (D) Elected 1992.  2006 Winning Percentage 60%

Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, Select Committee on Intelligence.

A supportive record on paper, but whose statements have sometimes been cause for concern.

Sen. Feinstein’s slow start should not prevent her from winning a fifth term. So far, the only announced GOP candidate is telecommunications professional Al Ramirez who announced his candidacy in late January, expressing his desire to be the first Hispanic CA Senator in the Golden State with its large Latino population.

CONNEcticut – OPEN

*Joe Lieberman (I) Elected 1988.  2006 Winning Percentage 50%

Armed Services.

One of our most respected and important friends in the Senate who is irreplaceable. 

Former GOP nominee Linda McMahon officially announced another run, and has said she will take a different approach this time. Dems have been quick to attack her, but McMahon has preemptively pushed back, calling herself a job creator and not a politician. McMahon was polling ahead of former Rep. Chris Shays, while on the Dem side Rep. Chris Murphy (excellent record) led Sec/State Susan Bysiewicz in what could be a tight primary race. This seat should remain Dem.

DElaware

*Thomas Carper (D) Elected 2000.  2006 Winning Percentage 70%

A usually dependable supporter.

In early January, 2010 House GOP candidate Kevin Wade announced his bid against Carper. The exec. of an engineering firm, Wade has tried to play up his “regular guy” credentials by denouncing politicians in general. But there’s no good reason to think Carper won’t be back for a third term.

Florida

*Bill Nelson (D) Elected 2000.  2006 Winning Percentage 60%

Select Committee on Intelligence

An unblemished record of support.

A number of prominent GOPers are taking on Nelson, including ex-Sen. George LeMieux. But Rep. Connie Mack (perfect record) is far ahead of the field. In an early January poll, Nelson edged out Mack, and is considered the frontrunner. Nelson is one of several Dem incumbents who are seeking to avoid both physical and political proximity to President Obama, and this one could go down to the wire.

Hawaii – oPEN

Daniel Akaka (D) Elected 1990.  2006 Winning Percentage 61%

Armed Services.

Not involved in our issues, but an acceptable record.

Ex-Rep. Ed Case (fair record) is facing off against current freshman Rep. Mazie Hirono (fair) who has the support of Aloha State icon Sen. Daniel Inouye (in his ninth term and going strong). With a late primary, Dems could have a problem against the well-funded ex-Gov. Linda Lingle. But odds favor Hirono in this heavily Dem state, and both Dems beat Lingle in January polls.

Indiana

Dick Lugar (R) Elected 1976.  2006 Winning Percentage 87%

Foreign Relations (Ranking Member).

In a key position, but not helpful on our issues, usually echoing the State Department line.

It appears that State Treas. Richard Mourdock and Lugar will face each other in the primary, with Lugar the favorite after moving to his right as the favorite. On the Dem side, Rep. Joe Donnelly (excellent record) has only a slim chance of besting the moderate Lugar who is going for a seventh term.

Maine

*Olympia Snowe (R) Elected 1994.  2006 Winning Percentage 74%

Select Committee on Intelligence.

An almost unblemished record of support.

None of the three Dems vying to run against her will have much of a chance to unseat the moderate and popular Snowe, who is also far ahead of her primary challengers. Working closely with fellow Pine Tree State Sen. Susan Collins, this independent duo will continue to represent the fast-disappearing moderate wing of the GOP in the Senate.

MARYLAND

*BEN CARDIN (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 55%

Foreign Relations.

A consistent, knowledgeable supporter.

Two January polls showed Cardin with solid approval numbers. When filing for the April primary closed, there were no fewer than 19 candidates who filed (9 Dems, 10 GOP). The only notable challenge to Cardin might come from Dem state Sen. Anthony Muse, while the leading GOP candidate is an ex-Secret Service agent, Daniel Bongino. Barring a huge upset, the brainy and popular Cardin will be back for a second term.

MASSACHUSETTS

*SCOTT BROWN (R) Elected 2010.  2010 Special Election Winning Percentage 52%

Armed Services.

Excellent record of support so far.

This hotly contested and expensive race presents Dems with their best chance to pick up a GOP seat, with polls showing a neck-and-neck race. Brown, who has been characterizing himself as a moderate, has already deserted his party on a few issues as he seeks to polish his bipartisan credentials. Dems quickly united behind Elizabeth Warren, a former Harvard Law professor and adviser to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, who has turned out to be a prolific fundraiser. Brown, no slouch himself in the money department, is gearing up for a tough battle. Both candidates agreed to try and keep the Super PACs from influencing the race, and ultimately the size of Obama’s victory margin in the Bay State could well decide this contest.

MICHIGAN

*Debbie Stabenow (D) Elected 2000.  2006 Winning Percentage 57%

A fine record of support and assuming a leadership role.

A Dem poll of Dec. 19 shows Stabenow leading GOP ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra (52-42%) in the general election matchup, with Hoekstra expected to easily beat a number of no-name primary opponents. Then, his real challenge will be to come from behind in a tough state for the GOP. Stabenow should be back.

MINNESOTA

AMY KLOBUCHAR (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 58%

A perfect record of support so far.

So far, it appears that no serious challenger has stepped up. While both Pawlenty and Bachman abandoned their presidential runs early, neither shows interest in going for a Senate seat. A Dem poll of Jan. 24 testing Sen. Klobuchar against five possible opponents showed her beating them all handily. This portends an easy victory in November.

MISSISSIPPI

ROGER WICKER (R) Elected 2008.  2008 Special Election Winning Percentage 55%

Armed Services.

A very acceptable record.

The candidates running for this seat are a mélange of unknowns, whose chances of winning are close to none.

MISSOURI

CLAIRE McCASKILL (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 50%

Armed Services.

A mixed record, with improvement shown of late.

Three Republican candidates are fighting it out to take on the vulnerable incumbent. They are self-funding businessman John Brunner, Rep. Todd Akin (fair/good record), and ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman who is also a former state Senator and is appealing to tea party supporters. Right now this one remains too close to call in both the GOP primary and general election. A late January poll had McCaskill tied with all three GOP challengers.

MONTANA

JON TESTER (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 49%

A very good record in his first term.

Differences between Tester and Obama over the Keystone pipeline have spurred the Senator to put distance between himself and the administration. A Dem poll of November 30 showed Tester with 46% approval and 42% disapproval ratings. He will have a very close race against GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg (fine record) who only has a political unknown to beat in his primary. It remains to be seen if Rehberg can make the most of Tester’s vulnerability.

Nebraska – OPEN

Ben Nelson (D) Elected 2000.  2006 Winning Percentage 64%

Armed Services.

A solid record of support.

With the incumbent seeing the writing on the political wall in the Cornhusker state and dropping out, Dem ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey explored a possible run, but decided not to take the plunge, with general agreement that Kerrey was the Dems’ only hope of holding on to the seat. On the GOP side it looks like Gov. Dave Heineman will not be running, and Rep. Jeff Fortenberry also bowed out. This leaves AG Jon Bruning ahead in the polls over three Dem challengers. Dems have already spent over $1.5M on ads to shore up Nelson, but Bruning has already raised significant sums, as this seat is perhaps the most vulnerable of all for Dems.

NEVADA

DEAN HELLER (R) Appointed 2011.

A Washington PAC priority race for Berkley to win.

When wealthy Dem. businessman Georgiou dropped out of the race in August, the Dem field was cleared for seven-term Rep. Shelley Berkley. But a new Dem challenger has emerged, and Berkley’s husband has gotten some unfavorable publicity. A December poll by the independent Las Vegas Review-Journal found Berkley and Heller neck-and-neck, with Las Vegas as Berkley’s stronghold, and Heller looking solid in northern Clark County. This one should go down to the wire, with the pro-Israel community rooting for Berkley – one of its most outspoken and dependable Congressional supporters.

New Jersey

*BOB MENENDEZ (D) Appointed 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 53%

Foreign Relations.

Excellent record of support, and particularly active on Iran issues.

In late January, GOP State Sen. Joe Kyrillos formally announced his candidacy. Recent polls showed Menendez  beating both Kyrillos (49-31%), as well as former Mayor Anna Little, who is also running, by the same margin. While his approval ratings remain tepid, Menendez should be tough to beat, even with Kyrillos being helped by Gov. Christie.

NEW MEXICO – OPEN

JEFF BINGAMAN (D) Elected 1982.  2006 Winning Percentage 71%

A significant fall-off of support in recent years.

Dem. Rep. Martin Heinrich (fair record) should prevail in the Dem primary, as a December poll showed him leading 47% to 30% over state Auditor Hector Balderas. It appears that ex-Rep. Heather Wilson (good record) will be the GOP nominee, and a GOP pick-up here is not out of the question, with Heinrich and  Wilson running neck-and-neck in a bipartisan January poll. This one is worth watching.

NEW YORK

*KRISTIN GILLIBRAND (D) Appointed 2009.  2010 Special Election Winning Percentage 63%

Armed services.

A very consistent friend, increasingly active on our issue.

A January 24 poll showed Gillibrand with good support, and earlier polling pitting her against GOPers Nassau Co. Comp. George Maragos, and ’10 Comp. nominee Harry Wilson, had Gillibrand with solid approval ratings dominating both by almost 3-to-1 margins. Self-funder Maragos is expected to win the GOP nod to challenge Gillibrand, but this should be a hopeless pursuit.

NORTH DAKOTA – OPEN

*KENT CONRAD (D) Elected 1986.  2006 Winning Percentage 69%

Select Committee on Intelligence.

With his consistently supportive record, he will be missed.

A late November Dem poll showed Dem ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp beating freshman GOP Rep. Rick Berg (good record) by 5 points. But Heitkamp will have to distance herself from Obama, who is unpopular in the state and expected to lose there. She has voiced her disapproval with Obama’s rejection of the Keystone pipeline project, an action which has put Obama at odds with several other Dem Sen. candidates in the Great Plains area. Given the recent GOP takeover of the Peace Garden State, this one, despite the early poll numbers, is Berg’s to lose – but one the Dems are hoping for.

OHIO

SHERROD BROWN (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 56%

State and Foreign Operations Subcommittee.

Sometimes supportive, but record definitely could use improvement.

GOP state Treas. Josh Mandel has been matching Brown in fundraising, but Brown is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Mandel, a Marine vet, has been working hard to get his name out to the voters. But a mid-January poll showed the incumbent beating Mandel (47-32%), with Brown’s approval/disapproval numbers also solid (48%/33%). Four other GOP hopefuls will be on the primary ballot – but Gov. Rob Portman is solidly behind Mandel, who is a vocal supporter of Israel who has already begun to highlight his differences with the incumbent on this issue. Despite the early poll numbers, this one is still in the undecided column.

PENNSYLVANIA

BOB CASEY (D) – Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 59%

Foreign Relations.

An excellent record of support in his first term.

Casey leads all potential GOP opponents by comfortable margins, with Tea Party favorite Tom Smith ahead of the pack of GOP self-funders. Barring the appearance of a well-known challenger, Casey should win handily.

RHODE ISLAND

*SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 53%

An almost perfect record of support.

Still no notable news here, leaving Whitehouse sitting pretty for winning a second term.

TENNESSEE

BOB CORKER (R) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 51%

Foreign Relations.

Usually, but not always, supportive.

With Lugar’s re-election in Indiana not certain, Corker would be in line to be Ranking Member of the Foreign Relations Committee and would become the chairman should the GOP gain control of the Senate. Corker looks like an easy winner in the Volunteer state.

TEXAS – OPEN

KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON (R) Elected 1993.  2006 Winning Percentage 62%

Defense Appropriations Subcommittee.

Consistently supportive.

A Dem poll of January had every single GOP candidate beating a Dem opponent. Frontrunner Dewhurst polled around 48%, and ex-state Solicitor Gen. Ted Cruz around 40%. An earlier January poll on the GOP primary matchup found Dewhurst at 36%, and Cruz at 18%. Dewhurst also had greater favorable ratings against Cruz who is not as well-known. On the Dem side, ret. Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez bowed out of the race, leaving ex-state Rep. Paul Sadler and atty. Jason Gibson announcing plans to run, in what has to be considered a real “mission impossible” in the GOP-leaning Lone Star state.

UTAH

*ORRIN HATCH (R) Elected 1976.  2006 Winning Percentage 63%

An overall fine record of support.

After months of speculation, Ex-state Sen. Dan Liljenquist finally confirmed in early January that he would enter the GOP primary race against Hatch on a platform critical of government spending. Around the same time, state Rep. Chris Herrod also jumped into the primary contest as a hardline conservative vehemently opposed to illegal immigration. Hatch may have dodged a bullet when Rep. Jason Chaffetz decided not to run.

VERMONT

BERNIE SANDERS (I) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 65%

A disappointing record, but not particularly involved in our issues.

No surprise in store for this outspoken Independent from the very blue Green Mountain State who will be back.

VIRGINIA – OPEN

JIM WEBB (D) Elected 2006.  2006 Winning Percentage 50%

Armed Services, Foreign Relations.

Poor record – will not be missed.

In Mid-January, ’08 candidate/Del. Bob Marshall officially announced his entry into the GOP primary, questioning frontrunner ex-Sen./ex-Gov. George Allen’s conservative credentials, however he is not expected to beat him. A poll in January pitting Allen against the presumed Dem challenger, ex-Gov./ex-DNC Chair Tim Kaine, had them tied. Kaine has already raised significantly more money than Allen, who has already spent most of what he brought in, so when the race kicks into high gear, Kaine should have quite a bit more cash on hand. The Old Dominion is also a key state in the Presidential election, which adds to the importance of this contest.

WASHINGTON

MARIA CANTWELL (D) Elected 2000.  2006 Winning Percentage 57%

Not directly involved in our issues, but a fine record.

GOP state Sen. Michael Baumgartner is considered to be a credible candidate. But he hails from the eastern portion of the Evergreen State, which has never produced a U.S. Senator. Cantwell should easily win in this contest.

WEST VIRGINIA

JOE MANCHIN (D) Elected 2010 in Special Election. Winning Percentage 54%

Armed Services.

Definitely much more supportive than his predecessor Robert Byrd.

With GOP Rep. Capito unwilling to give up her safe House seat for a Senate challenge, it will be up to businessman John Raese to try a fifth time for statewide office. A full term for the popular ex-Gov. and incumbent Joe Manchin is regarded a certainty.

WISCONSIN – OPEN

HERB KOHL (D) Elected 1988.  2006 Winning Percentage 67%

Defense Appropriations Subcommittee

A fine record with a few exceptions.

This one has a great deal of drama, with former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson squaring off against liberal Dem. Rep. Tammy Baldwin. First Thompson has to beat ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, and state Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald in what should be a spirited primary contest. This one is hard to call right now, and turnout in a Presidential election year could be key.

WYOMING

JOHN BARRASSO (R) Appointed 2007.  2008 Special Election Winning Percentage 73%

Foreign Relations.

An excellent record of support.

Doctor Barrasso has shown himself to be a fast learner, and is already in the GOP Senate leadership. He will be easily re-elected.